The 2028 Republican primary has a clear front-runner.
But voters just revealed a stunning contradiction about who they think can actually win.
And JD Vance crushed DeSantis in a new 2028 poll but Republicans admitted one stunning truth.
Republicans pick Vance for 2028 by landslide numbers
Vice President JD Vance isn't just leading the 2028 Republican primary field.
He's obliterating it.
The latest Yale Youth Poll surveyed 3,426 registered voters between October 29 and November 11, and the results weren't even close.¹
Vance captured 51% of Republican voters for their first choice in 2028.¹
https://twitter.com/YalePolling/status/1998020990635483150?s=20
Donald Trump Jr. came in a distant second with just 8%.¹
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis limped into third place at 6%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio right behind at 5%.¹
Every other potential candidate polled in single digits or less.¹
Vance dominated across every demographic Republicans care about.
He pulled 61% support from voters 65 and older — the core conservative base that actually shows up on Election Day.¹
Among voters 45-64, Vance took 52%.¹
Even younger Republicans backed him with pluralities across all age groups.¹
White voters gave him 53% support, Hispanics backed him at 44%, and "all others" supported him at 40%.¹
The Vice President's appeal cut across racial and age lines in ways most candidates only dream about.
These aren't marginal victories where somebody ekes out a plurality.
Vance is capturing absolute majorities of the party faithful.
But Republicans revealed something shocking about who can actually win
Here's where things get interesting.
The Yale poll asked a different question that exposed a massive disconnect.
Who do Republicans think can actually beat a Democrat in November 2028?
The answer stunned political insiders.
Republicans viewed DeSantis as the most electable candidate at 79% — even though they won't vote for him in the primary.²
https://twitter.com/YalePolling/status/1998034832371192181?s=20
Vance came in second on electability at 75%.²
Rubio scored 71%, and Trump Jr. managed just 67%.²
Think about that for a second.
Republicans believe DeSantis has the best shot at winning the general election by a full four points over Vance.
But they're backing Vance in the primary by 45 points.
"Results did not differ significantly between younger Republicans and all Republicans," Yale noted about the electability ratings.²
This isn't some fluke where one age group skews the numbers.
Republicans across the board — young and old — see DeSantis as their best bet to win.
They just refuse to vote for him.
Trump sees the writing on the wall for 2028
President Trump already telegraphed where he thinks this is heading.
According to POLITICO Playbook, Trump said he doesn't think anyone would challenge a Vance-Rubio ticket.³
"I'm not sure if anybody would run against those two," Trump stated. "I think if they formed a group, it would be unstoppable."³
Trump's not wrong to size it up that way.
The Yale poll included a hypothetical scenario where Trump himself ran for a third term — constitutionally impossible but they tested it anyway.
Even in that fantasy matchup, Trump only pulled 50% with Vance at 19%.¹
The interesting breakdown came from younger voters.
Only 20% of those aged 18-22 and 28% aged 23-29 said they'd back Trump in 2028.¹
Republicans 45 and older overwhelmingly supported the idea of Trump running again.¹
But among Republicans 18-22, Vance actually led Trump by 8 points in that scenario.¹
The future of the party wants Vance, not a Trump restoration.
DeSantis supporters hoping their guy has a path forward might want to check those numbers again.
The Governor keeps dodging questions about 2028, telling reporters he has his "hands full" and isn't "thinking about anything" regarding his next political move.²
That's probably wise.
Republicans have made their choice crystal clear.
They want Vance leading the ticket in 2028 — even if they secretly think DeSantis would have a better shot at winning.
¹ Yale Youth Poll, "Fall 2025 Survey Results," Yale Youth Poll, December 8, 2025.
² A.G. Gancarski, "Ron DeSantis 'most electable' in 2028 GOP poll, but not first choice," Florida Politics, December 8, 2025.
³ Ibid.
