Republicans thought they had Texas locked down forever.
One weekend race just shattered that illusion.
And Ron DeSantis just dropped one brutal fact that has Trump scrambling to save face.
Democrat Flips District Trump Won By 17 Points
Trump-endorsed Republican Leigh Wambsganss got destroyed Saturday night in a Texas state Senate race that nobody saw coming.
Democrat Taylor Rehmet, a union machinist, crushed her by 14 points in a district Trump won by 17 points in 2024.
That's a 31-point swing toward Democrats in deep red Texas.
Wambsganss outspent Rehmet more than 12-to-1 and still lost by double digits.
Trump posted three separate messages on Truth Social in the 48 hours before the election calling Wambsganss a "true MAGA Warrior" with his "Complete and Total Endorsement."
None of it mattered.
The Fort Worth-area district hasn't elected a Democrat in nearly half a century.
Now Democrats are celebrating in territory that was supposed to be rock-solid Republican country.
DeSantis Issues Reality Check Republicans Don't Want To Hear
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis didn't wait long to sound the alarm.
"Special elections are quirky and not necessarily projectable re: a general election," DeSantis posted on X before dropping the hammer. "That said, a swing of this magnitude is not something that can be dismissed. Republicans should be clear-eyed about the political environment heading into the midterms."
https://twitter.com/RonDeSantis/status/2018031846429278285?s=20
Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick called the result "a wake-up call for Republicans across Texas."
"Our voters cannot take anything for granted," Patrick stated.
Even Patrick saw trouble brewing weeks before Election Day when he started warning the race was closer than it should be.
Nobody expected a 14-point blowout in a district Trump carried by 17 points.
Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin called the Texas upset "a warning sign to Republicans across the country."
Democrats have been overperforming Trump's 2024 margins by an average of 14 points in special elections throughout 2025.
Trump Scrambles To Distance Himself From Disaster
Trump tried playing dumb when reporters asked about the Texas catastrophe at Mar-a-Lago on Sunday.
"Somebody ran it where?" Trump said.
Then he claimed he had nothing to do with it.
"I'm not involved in that. That's a local Texas race," Trump insisted. "You mean I won by 17 and this person lost? Things like that happen."
Trump had spent 48 hours promoting Wambsganss as a champion of his movement.
Now he acted like he barely knew her name.
"I'm not on the ballot, so you don't know whether or not it's transferrable," Trump added.
Except Democrats have been crushing it in special elections since Trump took office for his second term.
Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races went to Democrats by massive margins in November.
Kentucky and Iowa special elections flipped Democratic.
Even in Tennessee where Republicans won in December, Democrats cut Trump's 20-point margin down to just 9 points.
https://twitter.com/ProfAGarrison/status/2018360240668881172?s=20
The pattern is unmistakable.
DeSantis Warned About Trump Voter Problem Months Ago
DeSantis has been trying to tell Republicans for months that Trump voters only show up when Trump himself is on the ballot.
"I think Republicans have an issue that Donald Trump has created a big pool of voters, but some of them are unique to him," DeSantis said on Fox & Friends in December. "So they'll go vote for Trump, and they'll vote for all Republicans when Trump is on the ballot. But if he's not on the ballot, some of them don't vote."
That's exactly what happened in Texas.
Trump voters stayed home while Democrats turned out.
Republicans thought Trump's endorsement was political gold.
Turns out the magic only works when his own name appears on the ballot.
Republicans are staring down the 2026 midterms with Trump's approval rating at 37% according to Pew Research.
Only 15% of independents say they'll vote Republican in 2026.
https://twitter.com/latin_times_/status/2018334724528443665?s=20
Just 29% of Hispanics plan to back GOP candidates.
Those are the same voters who gave Trump his 2024 victory.
They're abandoning Republicans when Trump isn't running.
DeSantis pointed to his own 2022 landslide as proof Republicans can still win without Trump on the ballot.
"We won by a million and a half votes, 20 points, the biggest Republican win ever," DeSantis said.
"But we did that based on results and substance. We were sticking it to the left every single day and delivering big victories."
Republicans in Congress haven't delivered much since taking power in January 2025.
Trump himself admitted the danger when he told House Republicans at their policy retreat that Democrats will impeach him if Republicans lose the midterms.
"You got to win the midterms, because if we don't win the midterms, it's just going to be — I mean, they'll find a reason to impeach me," Trump said. "I'll get impeached."
The Texas blowout suggests Trump might be right to worry.
Sources:
- Jennifer Bowers Bahney, "Ron DeSantis Sounds Alarm About GOP's Election Loss in Trump +17 TX District," Mediaite, February 1, 2026.
- Elizabeth Findell and Liz Essley Whyte, "Texas election upset is a 'wake-up call' for future elections, Republican says," Wall Street Journal, February 1, 2026.
- Alejandro Serrano, "Democrat wins special election for red Texas Senate seat," The Texas Tribune, January 30, 2026.
- William A. Galston, "As President Trump loses support, Republican prospects in the 2026 midterms grow darker," Brookings Institution, December 4, 2025.
- Domenico Montanaro, "Politics in 2026: Questions for Trump, Democrats and the GOP," NPR, January 3, 2026.
