The mainstream media just declared Florida a battleground state.
They do this every two years and they are wrong every single time.
Byron Donalds went on national television this week and said what every Republican in Florida already knows – two special election losses don't flip a red state blue, and the press knows it too.
What the Media Is Leaving Out About the Florida Governor Race
Democrats flipped two Florida legislative seats last Tuesday and the celebration in newsrooms was immediate.
Emily Gregory won House District 87 in Palm Beach County by fewer than 800 votes.
Brian Nathan won Senate District 14 in Tampa by 408 votes.
The coverage framed it as proof that Trump's Florida was crumbling.
Here's what they didn't tell you.
Republicans still hold an 83-33 supermajority in the Florida House.
They hold a 28-12 supermajority in the Florida Senate.
Two seats out of 160, won by a combined margin of roughly 1,200 votes, in low-turnout special elections – and the media is writing Florida's obituary as a red state.
Why Florida Special Elections Are Not What Democrats Are Selling
Donalds told NewsNation exactly what the historical record shows.
"Special elections are very different animals," he said.
Turnout craters – HD 87 drew fewer than 34,000 voters in a district of 116,000 registered voters.
The party out of power is always more motivated to show up in off-cycle elections.
That's not spin. It's the pattern that has played out in every midterm cycle for 80 years.
Democrats also ran this same playbook in 2017 and 2018.
They won special elections in districts they had no business winning, declared that Trump's presidency was collapsing, and then lost Florida's governor's race in 2018 anyway – Ron DeSantis beat Andrew Gillum in a race the media told you was a toss-up.
https://twitter.com/WellsJorda89710/status/2037286876470546580?s=20
They lost it again in 2022 by 19 points.
The media called both of those races competitive right up until Election Night.
What the Media Won't Tell You About Byron Donalds and the 2026 Midterms
Donalds is sitting on a Trump endorsement and a primary lead that has every other Republican candidate scraping for single digits.
The latest polling has him ahead of Democrat candidate David Jolly by six points – a former Republican congressman who switched parties to run as a Democrat – before his campaign has spent a dollar on general election advertising.
He has raised roughly $50 million.
Donalds has barnstormed Florida talking to voters firsthand, not relying on media coverage to tell him what Floridians think.
"We fully anticipate that in the midterm elections, everybody's going to know once and for all that Florida is a red state," he said.
The Press Has Been Wrong About Florida Politics for 25 Years
Every two years the national media rediscovers Florida as a purple battleground.
Every two years Florida Republicans win.
https://twitter.com/ByronDonalds/status/2038361554966458557?s=20
Democrats did flip the Miami mayor's race last November and the Boca Raton mayor's race this month.
Local municipal elections in South Florida are not the same electorate that decides who governs the state.
The media knows this and reports it anyway because the "Florida is in play" story drives clicks and donations to Democratic candidates who need to raise money somewhere.
Donalds isn't panicking.
He's doing what Trump-endorsed candidates do when the media declares their campaigns in trouble – he keeps working and lets November settle it.
Florida hasn't last elected a Democratic governor since 1994.
There's no particular reason to start believing the press now.
Sources:
- A.G. Gancarski, "Byron Donalds Not Worried About November Despite Dem Special Election Wins," Florida Politics, March 30, 2026.
- Michael Costeines, "Florida is a Red State: Byron Donalds Downplays Democrats' Special Election Wins," The Hill, March 30, 2026.
- "Democrats Win Florida Special Election, Flip GOP-Held Seat in Trump's Home Turf," Fox News, March 24, 2026.
- "Democrat Emily Gregory Wins Special Election for HD 87 in Palm Beach County," Florida Politics, March 24, 2026.
- "New FL Gubernatorial Poll: Donalds Up by 6 vs. Jolly, 7 over Demings," Florida Phoenix, March 4, 2026.
