Florida drivers just watched their gas bill jump a dollar a gallon in five weeks.
Now the governor who built his career on fighting back is sending a warning to Washington.
And Ron DeSantis just told the White House that if pump prices don't come down, there will be a "political impact" – and he means it.
Florida Gas Prices Just Jumped a Dollar a Gallon and Nobody Saw It Coming
Gas in Florida was $2.89 a gallon on February 28.
It hit $3.95 this week – more than a dollar more than it cost a month ago.
The Iran war lit this fire the day U.S. and Israeli forces launched Operation Epic Fury, killing Ayatollah Khamenei and triggering Iran's de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
One-fifth of the world's daily oil supply moves through that chokepoint.
Iran slammed it shut.
Brent crude hit $120 a barrel on March 9 and hasn't dropped below $100 since March 13.
The International Energy Agency called this energy shock worse than the 1973 Arab oil embargo and the 1979 Iranian Revolution – combined.
DeSantis isn't sugarcoating what that means for voters.
"I think that there's the thing that I've noticed that people are more sensitive about than anything else is gas prices," he said in Tampa this week.
https://twitter.com/ReOpenChris/status/2039022969138077756?s=20
That's not political analysis.
That's a warning shot aimed directly at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Why $4 Gas Is a Five-Alarm Warning for Republicans Before the Midterms
Gas prices aren't just a consumer annoyance.
They're a political tripwire with a documented, decades-long kill record.
Jimmy Carter watched his approval ratings crater when prices hit the equivalent of five dollars a gallon in 1979.
George W. Bush saw the same collapse in 2008 as prices surged toward the equivalent of six dollars.
Now Trump, who campaigned on "drill baby drill" and made cheap gas a central promise of his second term, is watching the national average cross four dollars for the first time since Biden was humiliating America at the pump.
Karoline Leavitt is putting the best face on it: "When Operation Epic Fury is complete, gas prices will plummet back to the multi-year lows American drivers enjoyed before these short-term disruptions."
Republicans on the ground aren't buying it yet.
Aaron Evans, president of Winning Republican Strategies, said the quiet part out loud: "Americans always tend to vote with their wallets. And if we have to get into a deep foreign policy explanation on why gas prices are going up, then you know that normally doesn't play well."
DeSantis framed it the same way voters actually think about it: is $4 gas "the new normal or just a correction back to norm?"
If it's the new normal, Republicans lose the House.
Trump Is Betting the Strait of Hormuz Opens Before the Political Damage Is Done
Trump is moving.
He released 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, waived Jones Act shipping rules for 60 days, expanded E15 ethanol blends, and threatened to obliterate Iran's Kharg Island – through which 90 percent of their crude exports flow – unless the Strait reopens.
GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan said it plainly: "It's kind of a race against time."
EIA forecasts show Brent crude staying above $95 a barrel through May – and those numbers assume the Strait reopens soon, something Iran says isn't happening.
European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde called market hopes for a quick recovery "overly optimistic" and warned the disruption could last years.
He told Florida Democrats no on the gas tax holiday – not because he doesn't feel it, but because a 23-cent cut doesn't touch a dollar-a-gallon problem caused by a global oil shock.
"My answer is just get the cost down internationally," DeSantis said.
Trump knows it too – which is why he's negotiating through Jared Kushner with one hand while threatening Kharg Island with the other.
The question isn't whether Trump wants to fix this.
The question is whether he fixes it before November – because the 65 million Americans who handed him a second term didn't sign up to pay four dollars a gallon so Iran could prove a point about the Strait of Hormuz.
Win this war fast.
Reopen that strait.
Then watch gas prices prove every Democrat wrong.
Sources:
- A.G. Gancarski, "Ron DeSantis predicts 'political impact' from pain at the pump," Florida Politics, April 2, 2026.
- "No 'simple fix' for rising gas prices, DeSantis says," WUSF, March 20, 2026.
- "Record gas prices pose danger for Trump as Iran war shows no signs of ending," Washington Examiner, March 31, 2026.
- "How Rising Gas Prices Could Impact Trump's Approval Ratings," University of Virginia Center for Politics, March 31, 2026.
- "U.S. gas prices hit $4 per gallon as fuel prices surge due to Iran war," CNBC, March 31, 2026.
- "AAA Fuel Prices," AAA, March 26, 2026.
- "Trump raises Democratic attacks by downplaying high fuel prices sparked by Iran war," The Hill, March 13, 2026.
