Alexander Vindman moved to Florida in 2023 to take down Donald Trump’s handpicked governor.
A new poll just showed him losing by seven points.
If you’re wondering what Democrats were thinking, you’re not alone.
Florida Has Not Elected a Democrat to Statewide Office Since 2018
That’s not a typo.
The last time a Democrat won anything statewide in Florida, Nikki Fried eked out an agriculture commissioner race by four-tenths of a point.
Since then, Republicans have swept every statewide office – by double digits.
Ron DeSantis won re-election in 2022 by nearly 20 points.
Donald Trump carried Florida in 2024 by 13.
Republicans now hold supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature, every statewide executive office, and 20 of Florida’s 28 congressional seats.
In 2021, registered Republicans outnumbered registered Democrats in Florida for the first time in state history – and the gap has only grown.
https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/2046669562431570018?s=20
Into this landscape, Democrats sent Alexander Vindman.
The man whose entire political identity is “I testified against Trump at his first impeachment” decided that Florida – Trump’s home state, the state Trump won by 13 points, the state where no Democrat has won a statewide race in eight years – was where he’d make his stand.
The Echelon Insights poll conducted April 3–9 on behalf of NetChoice showed U.S. Senator Ashley Moody leading Vindman 50% to 43%.
Seven points.
Trump Called His Shot on Byron Donalds More Than a Year Ago
Back in February 2025, Trump posted on Truth Social that Donalds was “a TOTAL WINNER” and told him to run.
He wasn’t wrong.
The same Echelon Insights poll shows Donalds leading David Jolly 49% to 43% and Jerry Demings 48% to 44%.
Jolly is a former Republican congressman who abandoned his own party.
Demings is a county mayor who lost a Senate race to Marco Rubio by 11 points in 2022 – the best performance by any Democrat in a Florida statewide race that cycle, which tells you everything you need to know about that cycle.
This is the best Democrats have.
Donalds enters the race with Trump’s full endorsement, backing from Elon Musk, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, 27 Florida sheriffs, 75% of the Republican caucus in the Florida House, and – as of this week – the first sitting governor to back him, Sarah Huckabee Sanders.
https://twitter.com/FLVoiceNews/status/2046914448640692674?s=20
On one side: a Trump-endorsed congressman who was on the short list for vice president, has outraised every opponent, and is running to become Florida’s first Black governor.
On the other: a Broward County newcomer whose campaign launch video featured clips from a 2019 impeachment hearing and told Florida voters their state was “in chaos.”
Florida voters don’t think Florida is in chaos.
They moved here to get away from chaos.
Democrats Are Funding a Race They Cannot Win
Here’s what makes this more than a poll story.
Chuck Schumer’s midterm strategy is built on forcing Republicans to spend money defending seats that should be safe – stretching them thin going into November.
Vindman is Schumer’s Florida play.
The theory: Vindman’s small-dollar fundraising network – the same one that powered his twin brother Eugene’s congressional win in Virginia in 2024 – gives Democrats a viable enough candidate to create a spending headache for Moody, who was appointed to fill Marco Rubio’s seat when he became Secretary of State and hasn’t faced voters since her last attorney general race.
It’s a theory.
But here’s the problem: Florida doesn’t have the persuadable voters to make it work.
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/2043733711791751541?s=20
In the years leading up to 2022, as the state was cementing its Republican shift, the party added nearly 570,000 new registrants while Democrats gained a net of roughly 2,300 statewide.
You don’t close a seven-point gap with a fundraising email.
You don’t close it by running a man who opened his campaign calling Trump’s presidency “a reign of terror.”
Florida voters heard that message in 2024.
They voted for Trump by 13 points anyway.
Schumer can pour money into this race from now until November.
The math doesn’t move.
Sources:
- Frank Kopylov, “POLL: Donalds leads in two Florida governor matchups, Moody ahead in Senate race,” Florida News, April 21, 2026.
- Echelon Insights / NetChoice Florida Survey, April 3–9, 2026.
- “New Poll Shows Trump-Endorsed Byron Donalds Dominating Democrats in the Race for Florida Governor,” Byron Donalds for Governor Campaign, April 21, 2026.
- “First ad for Byron Donalds gubernatorial bid emphasizes Donald Trump endorsement,” Florida Politics, February 17, 2026.
