Florida Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins has been playing it coy about running for governor for months.
Meanwhile, Trump-endorsed Congressman Byron Donalds has been crushing the competition in every poll, building what looks like an unstoppable lead heading into 2026.
But a bombshell new survey just revealed the one move that could blow up Byron Donalds' coronation — and Ron DeSantis is the only one who can make it happen.
DeSantis endorsement creates instant 37-point swing
The Public Opinion Strategies poll of 700 Republican primary voters shows Collins currently trailing Donalds by 27 points — 40 percent to 13 percent.
Paul Renner sits at 2 percent, James Fishback at 1 percent, and a whopping 38 percent remain undecided.
Nothing remarkable there.
Donalds has Trump's endorsement, millions in the bank, and nearly a year's head start building name recognition.
Collins hasn't even officially announced he's running yet.
But here's where it gets interesting.
The poll asked voters what would happen if DeSantis gave Collins "the complete and total endorsement of Governor Ron DeSantis."
The numbers flipped instantly.
Collins would surge to 50 percent while Donalds would crater to just 24 percent — a 37-percentage-point swing that puts Collins up by 26 points.¹
https://twitter.com/CryptidPolitics/status/2000903642468286929?s=20
That's not a margin of error bounce.
That's a political earthquake.
Green Beret background closes deficit before DeSantis even weighs in
Even more revealing — Collins' military credentials alone moved the needle dramatically.
After viewing just four positive messages about Collins' U.S. Army Green Beret service and conservative positions, voters turned a 19-46 percent deficit into a 40-30 percent lead over Donalds.²
The poll results commissioned by the Florida Fighter political action committee demonstrate what Florida politicos have suspected for months.
DeSantis could single-handedly decide this race.
The Governor has been working the phones for weeks, pressing donors to back Collins while keeping his own powder dry publicly.
When asked directly by The Floridian whether he'd get involved if Collins entered the race, DeSantis gave the classic non-denial denial: "Well, we'll see what happens."
Translation: He's waiting to pull the trigger at maximum impact.
https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/2000944943783641155?s=20
Trump vs. DeSantis proxy war looks inevitable
Donalds has been operating like the race is already over.
He's raised more than $31 million as of September, rolled out endorsements from 15 Florida sheriffs and 17 members of Congress, and traveled the state like the presumptive nominee.
Trump handed him the ultimate political gift with a February endorsement, declaring Donalds would be a "truly Great and Powerful Governor for Florida."
The President even added "RUN, BYRON, RUN!" on social media for good measure.
But DeSantis hasn't forgotten that Donalds endorsed Trump over him in the 2024 presidential primary — and became one of Trump's most visible surrogates while DeSantis' campaign imploded.
The Governor publicly trashed Donalds earlier this year, claiming the Congressman hasn't delivered any "victories" for Florida despite his time in Washington, D.C.
DeSantis appointed Collins as Lieutenant Governor in August specifically to position him as a credible alternative.
Since then, Collins has been testing the waters while a mystery group called Florida Fighter has dumped nearly $3 million into television ads promoting his Green Beret background and conservative record.
Collins praised the third-party effort last month: "I'm very grateful for whatever group that was that put those out there."
He knows exactly what's happening.
https://twitter.com/GreenspansWager/status/2000698937208877479?s=20
Collins finally breaks his silence
For months, Collins drove Florida's political class crazy by refusing to commit one way or the other.
He'd tease a gubernatorial run in national media interviews, then dodge questions about when he'd make it official.
Collins addressed the speculation recently, claiming he wouldn't run until voters gave him permission.
"Never, never do I want politicians to jump into a race just because they think they're owed this because an online blog said something," Collins said. "Listen to the people."
Translation: He's waiting for DeSantis to give him the green light.
Collins currently polls at just 1 percent in some surveys without the Governor's backing.
But this new data shows he doesn't need months of retail campaigning or tens of millions in the bank if DeSantis goes all-in.
One endorsement from Florida's most popular Republican changes everything overnight.
The question isn't whether Collins can win.
It's whether DeSantis is willing to go to war with Trump to make it happen.
¹ Javier Manjarres, "New Poll Shows Collins Beating Donalds if DeSantis Endorses in Governor's Race," The Floridian, December 15, 2025.
² Ibid.
