The 2026 Florida Governor’s race is heating up faster than anyone expected.
A stunning new poll just revealed which candidate voters are backing.
And Byron Donalds dropped one bombshell that has Democrats scrambling for the exits in Florida.
Byron Donalds surges ahead in early Florida Governor polling
A brand new Victory Insights poll delivered devastating news for Democrats hoping to flip the Florida Governor’s Mansion in 2026.
U.S. Representative Byron Donalds (R-FL) holds a commanding 5.3-point lead over his potential Democrat opponent, former Representative David Jolly.
The poll found Donalds crushing Jolly 36.7% to 31.4% among likely Florida voters.
But here’s the kicker that should have Democrats losing sleep at night.
Nearly one-third of voters – 31.9% – remain undecided, and those undecided voters lean Republican by a whopping 17 percentage points.
That means Donalds is already winning, and the voters who haven’t made up their minds yet are primed to break heavily in his favor.
Victory Insights senior pollster Ben Galbraith didn’t mince words about what this means for Democrats.
"Donalds already has a lead, and undecided voters are likely to break heavily in his favor," Galbraith stated in the polling memo.
The poll was conducted from June 7-10, 2025 among 600 likely Florida voters using text-to-web and interactive voice response methodology.
David Jolly’s party-switching gamble backfires spectacularly
Democrats thought they had a secret weapon in David Jolly.
The former Republican congressman switched parties and launched his campaign as a Democrat, banking on the idea that his GOP pedigree would make him more appealing to moderate Republicans.
That strategy is crashing and burning.
The poll revealed that Jolly already has negative name recognition among Florida voters.
Only 15.1% of voters view him positively while 16.2% view him negatively – giving him an underwater approval rating right out of the gate.
Meanwhile, Donalds enjoys a solid 5.5-point net positive rating with 24.5% viewing him favorably compared to just 19% with a negative opinion.
Galbraith demolished the Democrat talking points about Jolly’s supposed crossover appeal.
The pollster noted that some political observers viewed Jolly’s Republican background as potentially appealing to GOP voters, but dismissed this theory.
"One realizes that this particular thought process is grounded more so in hope than in reason upon remembering that the Democrats’ nominee for Governor in 2022 was also once an elected Republican official, and he still lost in a landslide," Galbraith wrote.
That was a brutal reminder about Charlie Crist, another Republican-turned-Democrat who got steamrolled by Ron DeSantis in 2022.
Trump’s endorsement gives Donalds an insurmountable advantage
The poll revealed why Democrats are facing an uphill battle that might as well be Mount Everest.
Among self-identified "Donald Trump MAGA Republicans" – who represent 43% of all Republican voters in Florida – Donalds earns strong support with a 4.48 rating on a five-point scale.
That puts him in elite company with DeSantis (4.64) and Trump himself (4.79) among the MAGA base.
But here’s what makes Donalds particularly dangerous: he appeals across the Republican spectrum.
Among moderate Republicans, Donalds actually outperforms both DeSantis and Trump with an average score of 3.9.
Meanwhile, Jolly bombs with every category of Republican voters, including moderates who give him a pathetic 2.47 average score.
Even Democrats aren’t exactly thrilled with their own candidate, giving Jolly only a 3.62 average score.
Galbraith noted that Trump’s endorsement of Donalds creates "an insurmountable hurdle for any primary challenger."
Name recognition battle heavily favors Donalds
The poll revealed another significant challenge for Jolly’s campaign.
While both candidates are still building statewide recognition, Donalds holds key advantages in this crucial area.
Donalds has 49.4% total name recognition compared to Jolly’s 41.9%.
More importantly, over half of voters – 50.6% – have no opinion about Donalds, while a staggering 58.1% have no opinion about Jolly.
That gives Donalds much more room to define himself positively, while Jolly is already starting from a deficit with his negative approval ratings.
Florida GOP Chair Evan Power has already joined Donalds in launching attacks against Jolly’s record, signaling that Republicans plan to define the former congressman before he can rehabilitate his image.
The 2026 primary isn’t until August 18, 2026, giving candidates over a year to build their profiles.
But with Trump’s endorsement, strong crossover appeal, and a head start in the polls, Donalds appears positioned to cruise to the Republican nomination.
For Democrats, the early polling suggests their hopes of flipping Florida’s Governor’s Mansion may be nothing more than wishful thinking.
