Charlie Crist pulled the same stunt in 2022 – Republican turned Democrat – and DeSantis buried him by 19 points.
Now David Jolly is running the exact same play in the exact same state.
And Byron Donalds just handed him the exact same result.
The Party-Switcher Who Opposed Obamacare Now Wants to Expand It in Florida
David Jolly was a Republican congressman who opposed Obamacare.
He left the GOP in 2018, spent a few years as an independent, and then registered Democrat specifically to run for governor.
Now he wants to expand Obamacare across Florida.
Byron Donalds has a name for it.
"What you find with David Jolly is somebody who's done a complete 180 simply to run for office again and to gain relevance again," Donalds told Fox News Digital.
https://twitter.com/WellsJorda89710/status/2108709522701189131?s=20
He's right, and the polling proves it.
The new James Madison Institute survey of 1,200 registered Florida voters puts Donalds at 52% to Jolly's 42% among likely voters.
That is not a close race – that is a blowout in the making.
“From choosing the state’s next leaders to weighing changes to Florida’s Constitution, Florida voters are heading into an important election with consequential decisions before them,” Dr. Robert McClure, president and CEO of the James Madison Institute, said in a statement released with the poll Friday. “The latest JMI Poll provides a clear snapshot of where voters stand as Election Day approaches.”
Florida Has Not Elected a Democrat Governor in 32 Years
Republicans have won every Florida governor's race since Jeb Bush in 1998.
Five straight elections – through national waves, midterm reversals, and every Democrat strategy in the book.
DeSantis won reelection in 2022 by 19 points.
Trump carried Florida by 13 points in 2024.
There are now 1.2 million more registered Republicans than Democrats in the state.
The day Jolly filed as a Democrat, the top Democrat in the Florida Senate quit the party and told anyone who would listen that Florida Democrats were finished.
https://twitter.com/ElectionTime_/status/2108935586551627927?s=20
That was Jolly's own side saying it – not a Republican attack ad.
The only poll showing Jolly anywhere close is a Change Research survey, and every other pollster – Mason-Dixon, Stetson University, James Madison Institute – has Donalds ahead by 7 to 12 points.
“Byron Donalds will be the next Governor of Florida because he has the plan to lower costs, continue the great work of Governor DeSantis, and defend the Florida Dream,” Gates McGavick, communications director for the Donalds campaign, told Florida’s Voice. “David Jolly is a lobbyist with zero substance who will lose in November.”
A Vote for Donalds Is a Vote to Keep Trump's Florida Running at Full Speed
Donalds is Trump's guy.
Trump endorsed him.
Elon Musk endorsed him.
DeSantis endorsed him.
Senators, sheriffs, and 75% of the Florida House Republican caucus endorsed him.
He raised more than $22 million in the first quarter of 2026 – the largest haul ever for a non-incumbent candidate in Florida history.
If Donalds wins November 3, he becomes Florida's first black governor and hands Trump a fifth consecutive Republican governorship in the nation's third-largest state.
That is not just a Florida story – that is a mandate for the America First agenda with a governor who will enforce it.
https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/2108576246531563653?s=20
Jolly, meanwhile, is a man without a party who spent years calling Trump dangerous and is now asking Florida voters to trust him with the keys to the state.
The same James Madison poll found Ashley Moody leading Democrat Angie Nixon by the same 10-point margin in the Senate race.
Republicans lead in two of three Cabinet races.
David Jolly is on his third party in seven years and his second attempt to replicate a strategy Florida voters already rejected by 19 points.
They know how this ends.
Sources:
- Frank Kopylov, "Donalds, Moody hold matching 10-point leads in new JMI survey," Florida's Voice, October 9, 2026.
- Byron Donalds for Governor Campaign, "New Poll Shows Trump-Backed Donalds Continuing to Dominate Florida Governor's Race," byrondonalds.com, 2026.
- Fox News Digital, "Donalds rips opponent's 'complete 180' as Dem's own 2016 words come back to haunt him in tightening gov race," Fox News, 2026.
- Michael Costeines, "(POLL) Byron Donalds With 10-Point Advantage Over David Jolly in Governor's Race," 2026.
