The race to replace Ron DeSantis is shaping up to be a bloodbath for anyone not named Byron Donalds.
One newly released poll shows exactly how dominant Trump’s pick has become.
And Byron Donalds poll numbers just sent his GOP rivals scrambling.
Trump Endorsement Creates Massive Primary Advantage
New polling from St. Pete Polls reveals Byron Donalds sitting in a commanding position that would make any candidate jealous — he’s crushing every potential Republican challenger by margins that border on embarrassing.¹
In a hypothetical four-way Republican Primary featuring Donalds, Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins, former House Speaker Paul Renner, and Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, the Naples Congressman captures more than 39% of likely GOP Primary voters.²
Collins barely registers at under 4% support, while Renner shows up with less than 3%.³
The remaining 54% of voters remain undecided, but those numbers tell you everything about the current state of this race — two high-profile Republicans can’t even crack double digits combined while Donalds sits comfortably above them with room to grow.⁴
Casey DeSantis Presents Only Credible Challenge
The poll tested several head-to-head matchups to see if anyone could mount a serious challenge to Donalds’ frontrunner status.
When pollsters informed voters that Donalds held President Trump’s endorsement while Collins would likely have Governor DeSantis’ backing, the race became even more lopsided.
In that scenario, Donalds would capture more than 52% of Republican Primary voters compared to Collins’ paltry 12%.⁵
First Lady Casey DeSantis fares slightly better in a direct matchup with Donalds, but still gets soundly beaten.
The Congressman leads her 47% to 21% when voters learn Trump backs Donalds while Governor DeSantis would support his wife.⁶
That’s the closest anyone comes to making this competitive — and it’s still a 26-point blowout.
The poll surveyed 1,034 likely Republican Primary voters between October 13-15 and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.⁷
Trump’s Endorsement Proves Nearly Insurmountable
These numbers reveal what everyone in Florida politics already knew but didn’t want to admit publicly — Trump’s February endorsement of Donalds essentially ended this race before it began.⁸
The President made his choice crystal clear when Donalds announced his candidacy on Fox News’ Hannity back in February, and no amount of name recognition or DeSantis connections seems capable of overcoming that advantage.⁹
Donalds served as one of Trump’s most visible surrogates during the 2024 campaign and even appeared on the shortlist for Vice President before JD Vance got the nod.¹⁰
That loyalty to Trump — including the bold move of endorsing him over DeSantis during the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary — positioned Donalds perfectly for this moment.¹¹
The campaign has raised over $20 million and secured endorsements from most of Florida’s Republican congressional delegation.¹²
DeSantis Desperately Searches for Alternative
Governor DeSantis finds himself in the uncomfortable position of watching his preferred successor get absolutely demolished in early polling.
He appointed Collins as Lieutenant Governor in August specifically to elevate a potential gubernatorial candidate who could carry forward his legacy.¹³
DeSantis even dubbed Collins "the Chuck Norris of Florida politics" and praised him as someone who delivers results rather than seeking TV time — an obvious shot at Donalds.¹⁴
But the polling shows Collins’ military background and DeSantis connection can’t overcome Trump’s influence with Republican Primary voters.
The Governor also publicly rejected Paul Renner’s entry into the race, calling it an "ill-advised decision" just hours after the former House Speaker announced his candidacy in September.¹⁵
That leaves DeSantis with few options beyond his wife potentially jumping in — something she hasn’t ruled out but also hasn’t committed to after the Hope Florida charity scandal damaged her political standing.¹⁶
Florida Republicans Remain Loyal to Trump and DeSantis
The poll contained some additional findings that help explain Donalds’ dominance — Florida Republicans overwhelmingly approve of both Trump and DeSantis despite the ongoing proxy war between them.¹⁷
About 82% of likely GOP Primary voters approve of Trump’s job performance while under 13% disapprove.¹⁸
DeSantis actually polls slightly higher with 85% approval compared to just over 11% disapproval.¹⁹
Nearly 82% said Florida was on the right track.²⁰
Those numbers reveal that Republican Primary voters don’t see this as choosing sides between Trump and DeSantis — they like both men and simply prefer the candidate Trump endorsed.
Donalds benefits from being able to praise DeSantis’ record as Governor while simultaneously positioning himself as Trump’s choice to continue the America First agenda in Tallahassee.
That’s a nearly unbeatable combination in a Republican Primary.
The fact that more than half of voters remain undecided suggests there’s still time for someone to make a move, but every day that passes with Donalds sitting at 39% in a crowded field or 52% head-to-head makes catching him exponentially harder.
Collins and Renner would need some dramatic development to shift this race — and neither man has shown any signs of finding the formula to overcome Trump’s endorsement advantage.
¹ Jacob Ogles, "Byron Donalds continues to dominate Jay Collins, Paul Renner in GOP Primary Poll," Florida Politics, October 16, 2025, https://floridapolitics.com/.
² – ⁷ Ibid.
⁸ Associated Press, "Things to know about Rep. Byron Donalds, Trump’s pick to be Florida’s next governor," U.S. News & World Report, February 26, 2025.
⁹ Ibid.
¹⁰ Ibid.
¹¹ Ibid.
¹² Brendan Farrington, "Trump-Backed Byron Donalds Makes His Campaign Debut in the 2026 Race to Replace Gov. Ron DeSantis," U.S. News & World Report, March 28, 2025.
¹³ Mitch Perry, "Ron DeSantis selects Jay Collins to serve as lieutenant governor of Florida," Florida Phoenix, August 12, 2025.
¹⁴ WESH Staff, "DeSantis picks state Sen. Jay Collins to be Florida’s lieutenant governor," WESH, August 12, 2025.
¹⁵ Mitch Perry, "DeSantis opposes Paul Renner entering governor’s race: ‘Ill-advised decision’," Florida Phoenix, September 3, 2025.
¹⁶ Ibid.
¹⁷ Jacob Ogles, "Byron Donalds continues to dominate Jay Collins, Paul Renner in GOP Primary Poll," Florida Politics, October 16, 2025.
¹⁸ Ibid.
¹⁹ Ibid.
²⁰ Ibid.
