Casey DeSantis was on the fast track to extend the DeSantis dynasty in Florida.
But Donald Trump had other plans.
And now Casey DeSantis just got some news about her political future that changed everything.
Casey DeSantis’ gubernatorial hopes fade after Trump endorsement
The wife of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis had been floating a run to succeed her husband when his term expires in 2026.
Political insiders in Florida saw the move as a way to keep the DeSantis administration’s policies in place with a friendly successor.
But Florida Republicans now say the former First Lady of Florida is “leaning against running,” according to a consultant involved in discussions about her candidacy.
The tide began to turn against Casey DeSantis when President Donald Trump threw his endorsement behind Congressman Byron Donalds.
Trump’s blessing has transformed the Naples-area Congressman into the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination.
“I think Byron will be the next governor,” Stephen Lawson, a Republican operative and former campaign aide to Ron DeSantis, said.
Hope Florida controversy damaged DeSantis’ image
Making matters worse for Casey DeSantis, her signature initiative as First Lady came under intense scrutiny in recent months.
The Miami Herald and Tampa Bay Times reported that the DeSantis administration steered a $10 million Medicaid settlement to support Hope Florida, Casey DeSantis’ signature charity initiative.
The money was split between two non-profits, which then directed most of it to a political action committee run by James Uthmeier, DeSantis’ former chief of staff and the current attorney general.
The controversy grew so severe that Florida’s Republican-led legislature launched an investigation into the funds.
A Republican lawmaker leading the probe even said he’d uncovered money laundering and wire fraud, though he never directly implicated Casey DeSantis.
While that investigation is now closed, the House Speaker has suggested it could be reopened, saying “all options are still on the table with Hope Florida.”
Trump White House allies aligned against another DeSantis
The path for Casey DeSantis is further complicated by powerful Trump allies with long memories.
White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair were both dismissed by Governor DeSantis during his first term, creating what one Florida lobbyist characterized as a “blood feud.”
Barney Keller, a Republican operative who previously worked with Blair, said, “if anybody is going to be good at closing the door on a challenge to Byron Donalds, it’s going to be James Blair.”
Republican operatives believe a Casey DeSantis campaign would struggle to hire top talent given the Governor’s history of staff turnover and the career risk of going against a Trump-backed candidate.
The polling numbers tell the story
Recent polling has shown just how difficult Casey DeSantis’ path would be.
A poll of the hypothetical primary contest revealed Donalds leading Casey DeSantis by a stunning 19 percentage points when respondents were informed of Trump’s endorsement.
Meanwhile, Donalds has been building a formidable war chest, raising $15 million in just 45 days, according to a person familiar with his operation.
Casey DeSantis has been silent about her potential candidacy since February, when she first publicly acknowledged she was considering a run.
Roger Stone, the longtime South Florida-based Trump ally and DeSantis critic, offered a blunt assessment of what would happen if she decides to challenge Donalds.
“Casey DeSantis will be ignominiously defeated,” he said.
Casey DeSantis still has time to delay her decision until the fall, hoping questions about Hope Florida fade and Donalds’ candidacy stumbles before next August’s primary.
But the clock is ticking, and with Trump’s political machine fully behind Donalds, extending the DeSantis era in Florida appears increasingly unlikely.
