David Jolly went on MSNBC in August 2024 and told the country Donald Trump would likely lose to Kamala Harris.
Trump carried Florida by 13 points.
Now Jolly – the same guy who called that one wrong on national television – is running for governor as a Democrat against Trump's handpicked candidate.
The Numbers That Buried the Competition
Byron Donalds just hit 54% in a new Fabrizio Lee survey of likely Republican primary voters.
That's not a lead.
That's a coronation.
His nearest rival – James Fishback – sits at 9%.
Jay Collins, who burned millions on an ad blitz specifically designed to close this gap, sits at 7%.
Paul Renner, former speaker of the Florida House, pulled 2%.
https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/2050322944488878336?s=20
The remaining 28% are undecided – and according to the Fabrizio memo, the voters abandoning that column are breaking almost exclusively toward Donalds.
That's a 45-point lead with momentum still accelerating.
What $67 Million Buys You
This didn't happen by accident.
Donalds pulled in $22 million in the first quarter of 2026 alone – a record for any non-incumbent Florida governor candidate in a Q1 election year.
His total war chest sits above $67 million.
His nearest primary opponent, Jay Collins, raised $1.74 million in the same period.
That gap – more than twelve to one – tells you everything about how Republicans across the state view this race.
The endorsement roster is just as lopsided: Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Rick Scott, 17 members of Florida's congressional delegation, House Republican leadership, and the majority of Florida's sheriffs.
Sheriffs.
Law enforcement across the entire state looked at this race and said – that's our guy.
The Pattern Democrats Are Desperate to Ignore
Florida hasn't elected a Democrat governor in over 20 years.
https://twitter.com/WellsJorda89710/status/2054154460302114857?s=20
The last time Democrats ran a Republican-turned-Democrat for governor, it was Charlie Crist in 2022.
DeSantis beat him by 19 points.
Their top 2026 candidate is the same play – David Jolly, a former Republican congressman who switched parties in April 2025 to run against Trump's endorsed candidate.
Sound familiar?
Multiple polls show Donalds leading Jolly by 5 to 7 points in general election matchups, in a state Trump carried by 13 points in 2024.
Democrats are recycling the same losing strategy and expecting a different result.
They won't get one.
What This Actually Means
Democrats and their media allies are pointing to those general election polls and calling Florida competitive – hoping you don't notice the primary numbers moving in the exact opposite direction.
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/2051220315410215048?s=20
Here's the question they don't want asked: if Trump's endorsement is losing its power, why does Donalds jump 9 points every time more Florida Republicans find out he has it?
That's not a narrowing race.
That's a closing door.
And the man Democrats want to walk through it is the same guy who spent years as a Trump critic on MSNBC, predicted on live television that Trump would likely lose to Kamala Harris, then switched his party registration to run against the candidate Trump actually endorsed.
He called the 2024 election wrong.
He called his own party wrong.
Now he wants Florida to trust him with the governor's mansion.
Donalds raised $22 million in a single quarter.
Jolly raised $2 million in that same quarter – and $5 million total across his entire campaign.
Florida's primary is August 18th.
Florida is about to teach him the same lesson it taught Charlie Crist.
Sources:
- Ryan Smith, "Polling Continues to Confirm," Friends of Byron Donalds PAC Statement, May 2026.
- Florida Politics, "Poll Shows Likely GOP Voters Flocking to Byron Donalds," Florida Politics, May 2026.
- Florida Politics, "Byron Donalds Posts Record $22M Quarter to Kick Off 2026 Governor's Race," Florida Politics, April 2026.
- Emerson College Polling, "Florida 2026 Poll: Donalds Leads GOP Primary for Governor," Emerson College, April 2026.
- HuffPost, "Ex-GOP Rep. David Jolly Hits Trump With Stark Election Warning," HuffPost, August 2024.
- Florida Politics, "Poll Shows Byron Donalds Starts with 6-Point Lead Over David Jolly," Florida Politics, June 2025.
