Democrats keep insisting Florida is still winnable.
The numbers tell a very different story.
And Florida Democrats got humiliated in this one major poll that should have them throwing in the towel.
Republicans dominate in every 2026 Florida matchup measured in new poll.
Byron Donalds and Casey DeSantis don't agree on much when it comes to the 2026 Florida governor's race.
But here's what they do agree on: Democrats don't stand a chance.
A new University of North Florida poll of 728 likely voters confirms what everyone in Florida politics already knows – Republicans are running the table.¹
Donalds, the Naples Congressman with President Trump's endorsement, leads Democrat David Jolly by 11 points, 45%-34%.²
Casey DeSantis, the First Lady who Republicans keep begging to run, performs even better – beating Jolly by 13 points, 47%-34%.³
Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings fares no better against either Republican.
Donalds crushes him by 12 points, while Casey DeSantis wallops him by 11.⁴
These aren't close races with undecideds breaking one way or another.
These are blowouts – and the primary is still more than 10 months away.
Democrats chose the worst possible candidate for 2026
David Jolly's entire campaign strategy was supposed to be brilliant.
A former Republican Congressman who turned on Trump and became an MSNBC talking head switches parties and runs as a Democrat.
Voters would see him as a reasonable moderate who could win back independents and disaffected Republicans tired of the culture wars.
That was the theory anyway.
Reality delivered a very different verdict.
Jolly represented Pinellas County in Congress from 2014 to 2017 before losing to Charlie Crist – yes, that Charlie Crist, the other Republican-turned-Democrat who got demolished trying this exact same strategy.
Florida Republicans watched Crist get crushed by Ron DeSantis by 19 points in 2022.
Now Democrats are running the same playbook with an even weaker candidate.
Jolly left the Republican Party in 2018, became an independent, then finally registered as a Democrat in April 2025 specifically to run for governor.⁵
His entire political identity for the past seven years has been "Trump critic on cable news."
That might play well in green rooms at MSNBC.
It doesn't win elections in Florida – a state Trump just carried by 13 points.
Ryan Smith, Donalds' chief campaign strategist, summed up Republican sentiment perfectly: "By switching from Republican to Independent to Democrat, Jolly has officially completed his transition to become the next Charlie Crist."⁶
Trump's endorsement gives Donalds insurmountable advantage
The numbers tell the story of how Trump's endorsement reshaped this race before it even started.
After Trump urged him to run and promised his "Complete and Total Endorsement,” Donalds announced his campaign in March of 2025.⁷
The President's backing was devastating to potential Republican challengers.
Earlier polls showed that when voters learned about Trump's endorsement, Donalds' support jumped dramatically while rivals like Casey DeSantis saw their numbers crater.
One internal poll from May found Donalds leading Casey DeSantis 44%-25% after voters knew Trump backed him.⁸
That same poll showed Donalds at 49% with Trump's endorsement versus just 21% for Casey DeSantis with only her husband's support.⁹
Trump's influence in Florida Republican politics isn't subtle.
It's absolute.
Donalds has already raised more than $31 million for his campaign – dwarfing every other candidate in the race.¹⁰
He's got the President's endorsement, the money, and now the polling to prove he's the prohibitive favorite.
Casey DeSantis still hasn't officially entered the race, though Ron DeSantis keeps publicly touting her credentials and suggesting she'd run.
https://twitter.com/PollTracker2024/status/1983106068147257557
But the window is closing fast.
The longer she waits, the harder it gets to build a campaign operation capable of competing with Donalds' Trump-backed juggernaut.
The data exposes Florida Democrats' delusions about 2026
Democrats looking at this poll should be asking themselves hard questions.
Jolly is getting crushed by double digits against candidates who haven't even locked up their own primary yet.
The poll shows housing costs (14%), property insurance (12%), and property taxes (11%) as top concerns for Florida voters.¹¹
These are bread-and-butter economic issues where Republicans have been hammering Democrats for years.
Jolly's campaign pitch about "affordability" and "solutions-focused politics" isn't moving the needle.
Republicans have supermajorities in both houses of the Florida Legislature.
They control every statewide office.
Trump carried the state by 13 points in 2024.
DeSantis won re-election by 19 points in 2022.¹²
Florida hasn't elected a Democrat to statewide office since 2018.
There are now 1.2 million more registered Republicans than Democrats in Florida.¹³
At what point do Democrats admit they're not competing in Florida anymore?
The poll also tested voter sentiment on eliminating childhood vaccine mandates – a priority for the DeSantis administration.
Sixty-three percent of Floridians oppose removing vaccine requirements for children, with 48% strongly opposed.¹⁴
That's the kind of wedge issue where Democrats should theoretically have an advantage.
They're still losing by double digits.
Michael Binder, the poll's faculty director, tried to spin the results positively: "We're still a year away from the midterm election, and there are quite a few undecided voters."¹⁵
That's not optimism – it's desperation.
Undecided voters in Florida don't break for Democrats.
They break for Republicans or they stay home.
The 2026 Florida governor's race is already over, and Democrats are just too stubborn to admit it.
¹ Mitch Perry, "Survey shows Florida Republicans leading Democrats in top 2026 races by double digits," Florida Phoenix, October 28, 2025.
² Ibid.
³ Ibid.
⁴ Ibid.
⁵ "David Jolly is now a Democrat and moving closer to running for governor," Florida Phoenix, April 25, 2025.
⁶ "Former Republican David Jolly launches long-shot bid for Florida governor as a Democrat," NBC News, June 5, 2025.
⁷ "Byron Donalds' Chances of Beating Casey DeSantis in Florida—Polls," Newsweek, July 14, 2025.
⁸ "New poll of GOP gov race shows the power of Trump endorsement in Donalds-Casey DeSantis matchup," Florida Phoenix, May 9, 2025.
⁹ Ibid.
¹⁰ Perry, "Survey shows Florida Republicans leading Democrats."
¹¹ Ibid.
¹² "Former Republican David Jolly launches long-shot bid," NBC News.
¹³ Ibid.
¹⁴ Perry, "Survey shows Florida Republicans leading Democrats."
¹⁵ Ibid.
