Florida Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins just jumped into the most lopsided Republican primary in state history.
Trump already endorsed his opponent months ago, and the polls show it.
And Jay Collins' 30-point deficit against Byron Donalds reveals one ugly truth about challenging the President's pick.
Trump's Endorsement Turned GOP Primary Into Coronation
Collins announced his gubernatorial bid Monday, emphasizing his military credentials and conservative legislative record.
The former Green Beret served 23 years in the Army, including combat deployments to Afghanistan and Iraq where he earned a Purple Heart and Bronze Star.
But none of that matters in a Republican primary where Trump already picked his guy.
A Mason-Dixon poll released this week shows U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds crushing the field with 37% support versus Collins' 7%.
Former House Speaker Paul Renner and businessman James Fishback trail even further behind at 4% and 3% respectively.
The Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll tells an even worse story for Collins.
When Republican voters learn about Trump's backing, Donalds' support explodes to 68% while all other candidates combined get just 10%.
That's a 58-point blowout.
"Trump-endorsed Byron Donalds is the only proven conservative fighter who can unite Republicans, deliver on the president's America First agenda, crush the Democrats, and make Florida more affordable," Byron Donalds for Governor Campaign Chief Strategist Ryan Smith said.
The president's February 2025 endorsement — which came before Donalds even formally launched his campaign — brought a parade of Republican heavyweights.
Elon Musk, Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders, 27 top Florida sheriffs, 17 members of Florida's congressional delegation, and 75% of the Republican caucus in the Florida House all followed Trump's lead.
Donalds has raised over $45 million for his campaign.
Collins can't compete with that machinery.
DeSantis Won't Save Collins From Polling Disaster
The biggest question hanging over Collins' candidacy is whether Governor Ron DeSantis will endorse his own lieutenant governor.
DeSantis tapped Collins as his No. 2 in August 2025 after Jeanette Nuñez left to become president of Florida International University.
The governor praised Collins as having "a great conservative record in the Florida Senate" and famously dubbed him "the Chuck Norris of Florida politics."
But when asked Monday if he'd endorse Collins, DeSantis hedged.
"If I get involved in the primary you'll know it," DeSantis said. "It'll be at a time and place of my choosing."
Translation: Don't hold your breath.
The relationship between DeSantis and Collins soured after leaked text messages revealed Collins agreed with State Rep. Alex Andrade that DeSantis might have Asperger's syndrome.
"Yes, they do have real success. And you can try and justify your actions (or) just accept it. You're screwed up and move on," Collins replied to Andrade's speculation about DeSantis being on the autism spectrum.
DeSantis' famously thin skin probably didn't absorb that revelation well.
Collins also stood by DeSantis during the Hope Florida scandal — the First Lady Casey DeSantis' charity that allegedly diverted $10 million from a Medicaid settlement to political groups fighting marijuana legalization.
The Florida House Republicans investigated the scheme for wire fraud and money laundering before abruptly ending the probe in April 2025.
Collins called himself a "vocal advocate" for Hope Florida, saying "the money was being appropriated and used for the right reasons."
That loyalty didn't earn Collins the endorsement he needed.
Meanwhile, DeSantis and Donalds have their own damaged relationship.
Donalds endorsed Trump over DeSantis in the 2024 Republican presidential primary.
"It's been better," Donalds told Fox News when asked about his relationship with the governor.
DeSantis initially wanted his wife Casey to run for governor, but the Hope Florida scandal destroyed those plans.
Now the governor sits on the sidelines watching Trump's endorsed candidate steamroll his own lieutenant governor.
Collins' Military Record Can't Overcome Trump Factor
Collins is betting his Green Beret credentials will resonate with Florida's massive military and veteran population.
The Tampa Bay area, Jacksonville, and the Panhandle all have heavy defense presence including MacDill Air Force Base.
"Leadership is forged under pressure, not in soundbites," Collins wrote. "I served over 23 years in the United States military, mainly as a Green Beret, where accountability is real, decisions have consequences, and service comes before self."
https://twitter.com/JayCollinsFL/status/2011857644231733675?s=20
His 2007 Afghanistan tour nearly killed him.
Collins took a bullet to the arm during a firefight but kept shooting back.
He stayed in the field patching himself up, then returned to combat operations just 30 days later.
Those same injuries eventually forced doctors to amputate his leg in 2014.
Most soldiers would retire after losing a leg in combat.
Collins went through requalification as a fully deployable Green Beret and served five more years on active duty before finally retiring as a first sergeant.
His military awards include the Legion of Merit, Bronze Star Medal, Purple Heart, Meritorious Service Medal, Combat Infantryman Badge, and Master Parachutist Badge.
But military heroism doesn't beat Trump's endorsement in a Republican primary.
Especially when 49% of GOP voters remain undecided.
Those undecided voters break for Trump's pick once they learn about the endorsement.
The Fabrizio poll tested this specifically — support for Donalds nearly doubles when voters learn Trump backs him.
Political committees supporting Collins have spent months running ads across key Florida media markets.
The American Promise poll found those ads had zero effect.
Only 16% of respondents recalled seeing anything about Collins despite the multimillion-dollar advertising blitz.
"Any momentum from Jay Collins' multimillion-dollar advertising campaign has completely dissipated," the Fabrizio memo states.
Collins must build a statewide campaign from scratch with seven months until the August 18 primary.
He's facing a candidate who leads by 30 points, has raised over $45 million, and carries Trump's endorsement.
The math doesn't work.
Florida hasn't elected a governor without Trump's blessing since before Trump dominated Republican politics.
Collins can talk about his combat record, his conservative legislative achievements, and his loyalty to DeSantis all he wants.
None of it matters when Trump already picked Byron Donalds.
The Republican primary for Florida governor is over before it started.
Sources:
- Jacob Ogles, "Text exchange shows Jay Collins agreeing Ron DeSantis has Asperger's syndrome," Florida Politics, August 21, 2025.
- Phil Ammann, "Latest 2026 Florida GOP gubernatorial poll shows Byron Donalds blowing away the rest of the field," Florida Phoenix, January 9, 2026.
- Pedro Boccalato Rodriguez-Aparicio, "Donalds Has Commanding Lead in Vital Florida Race, Poll Shows," The Daily Signal, January 15, 2026.
- Paul Steinhauer, "Rep. Bryon Donalds leads Florida governor race with Trump support," Fox News, December 18, 2025.
- "Jay Collins – Wikipedia," accessed January 19, 2026.
- "Hope Florida scandal – Wikipedia," accessed January 19, 2026.
- CNN Politics, "Lt. Gov. Jay Collins enters Florida governor's race against Trump-backed Rep. Byron Donalds," January 13, 2026.
