The 2028 Presidential race is already taking shape.
Two names keep rising to the top of Republican wish lists.
And JD Vance crushed Donald Trump Jr and Ron DeSantis with one devastating poll number that left Democrats reeling.
JD Vance dominates 2028 GOP field
A new poll from The Center Square shows Vance leading the entire Republican field by margins that would make any political operative salivate.¹
The numbers tell a story that should worry every Democrat already planning their 2028 strategy.
Among registered Republicans, 38% picked Vance as their first choice if the primary were held today.²
That’s a commanding lead, but it gets better. Among Independents — the voters who actually decide elections — Vance pulled 41% support.³
Donald Trump Jr. came in second at 26% among Republicans, a full 12 points behind the Vice President.⁴
But here’s where it gets brutal for the President’s eldest son.
Among Independents, Trump Jr. managed just 13% — less than a third of Vance’s support.⁵
The poll surveyed 2,565 registered voters from October 2-6, including 978 Republicans and 178 Independents.⁶
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Secretary of State Marco Rubio polled in single digits at 6% and 4% respectively.⁷
Vance didn’t just edge out the competition. He ran away with it across the demographics that decide Republican primaries.
Seniors handed Vance the keys to 2028
Half of Republican voters 65 and older picked Vance as their first choice.⁸
In a party where seniors reliably turn out on primary day, those aren’t good numbers for the Vice President. They’re devastating for everyone else.
Vance captured 40% or more support from Americans ages 45 and older, as well as voters with household incomes under $100,000.⁹
He also secured 42% support from voters without college degrees — the working-class Americans who powered Trump’s movement.¹⁰
And here’s something that should terrify Democrats looking ahead to the general election. Vance performed better among Republican and Independent women than men, securing 40% support from women compared to 36% from men.¹¹
That destroys the left-wing narrative that Vance’s past comments about "childless cat ladies" would doom him with female voters.
Republican women know authenticity when they see it, and they’re backing Vance in force.
Trump Jr. owned the 18-44 demographic with roughly 40% support.¹²
Higher-income households above $100,000 and male voters also preferred the President’s son.¹³ College-educated Republicans split evenly between both men at 33%.¹⁴
Vance swept the Midwest, South, and West.¹⁵
Rural voters backed him at 47% while suburbanites gave him 42%.¹⁶ Trump Jr. did better in cities with 44% and edged ahead in the Northeast, 38% to 31%.¹⁷
Vice President using the job to build 2028 credentials
Vance isn’t coasting on poll numbers. Since January, he’s been one of the most visible vice presidents in recent memory — and it’s paying off.
Vance has become Trump’s most prominent advocate and the administration’s point man for advancing the America First agenda. During negotiations over Trump’s massive tax and spending bill in July, Vance held meetings with conservative and moderate holdouts to push the legislation through.¹⁸
He cast several tie-breaking votes as president of the Senate to move the spending bill forward.¹⁹
Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski, who had criticized the bill’s cuts to Medicaid and food assistance programs, met with Vance where he personally addressed her concerns.²⁰ North Carolina GOP Representative Greg Murphy decided to support the package after speaking by phone with both Vance and the President.²¹
Political observers have expected Vance to become the second-most powerful vice president in U.S. history after Dick Cheney.²²
At just 40 years old, Vance is the third-youngest person to serve as vice president and the first from the Millennial generation.²³
Unlike previous vice presidents who entered office expecting their boss to run for reelection, Vance faces a unique timeline.
Trump’s constitutionally limited second term means Vance’s presidential ambitions will be tested much sooner than is normally the case for sitting vice presidents.²⁴
Trump Jr.’s friendship with Vance complicates 2028 dynamics
The relationship between Vance and Trump Jr. adds another layer to the 2028 race.
Trump Jr. was credited with advocating for his father to choose Vance as his running mate.²⁵ The two men share a close friendship that both have spoken about publicly.
When reports emerged in March suggesting Trump Jr. was seriously considering a 2028 run, he vehemently denied them on social media.
"I accurately predicted that my buddy JD would be an instant power player in national GOP politics, so your theory is that I worked my ass off to help get him the VP nomination because I want to run for president in 2028?" Trump Jr. wrote.²⁶
But Trump Jr. has also kept the door open to a future presidential campaign.
At the Qatar Economic Forum in May, when asked if he would consider running after his father steps down, Trump Jr. said "I don’t know, maybe one day, you know — that calling is there."²⁷
President Trump himself added intrigue to the succession question during a February Super Bowl interview.
When Fox News’s Bret Baier asked if he views Vance as his successor and the Republican nominee in 2028, Trump said "No, but he’s very capable. I think you have a lot of very capable people."²⁸
Trump added that "It’s too early, we’re just starting" when asked about endorsing Vance.²⁹ For a president who values loyalty above all else, that lukewarm response sent shockwaves through Republican circles.
Some Republicans argue that Trump should quickly anoint Vance to avoid the party wasting time and money on a contentious primary.
But Trump cares deeply about his legacy, and a family dynasty would further solidify his place in history.³⁰
Vance’s lead is widening over Trump Jr.
This isn’t the first poll showing Vance crushing the 2028 Republican field.
A McLaughlin and Associates poll from June showed Vance leading with 36% support, more than doubling Trump Jr.’s 14%.³¹
That marked a notable shift from earlier in 2025 when Vance had a much smaller lead.
In January, Vance polled at 27% while Trump Jr. held steady at 21%.³² Vance surged in the following months, reaching a peak of 43% in April before settling back slightly.³³
Aaron Evans, president of Winning Republican Strategies, called the results "notable" but "not surprising."
He told Newsweek that "Vance has stood firmly with President Trump in advancing the America First agenda. His leadership and visibility are clearly resonating with Republican voters — especially as he’s been more front-and-center in the news cycle than members of the Trump family."³⁴
The pattern is clear. The more Republicans see Vance in action as Vice President, the more they want him to be their 2028 nominee.
Vance holds commanding leads among conservatives at 43%, white voters at 38%, Hispanic Republicans at 28%, and voters over 55 at 39%.³⁵
He outperforms Trump Jr. among both men at 38% and women at 34%.³⁶
Democrats face a nightmare scenario with Vance as 2028 nominee
Vance’s polling strength among Independents should set off alarm bells in every Democrat strategy session.
Winning over Independent voters is how you win presidential elections, and Vance is already showing he can do it.
His 41% support among Independents compared to Trump Jr.’s 13% reveals something Democrats don’t want to admit.
Vance appeals to voters outside the hardcore MAGA base in ways Trump Jr. doesn’t.³⁷
Vance’s resume matters to voters who aren’t already sold on MAGA. Marine Corps veteran with combat deployment to Iraq.³⁸
Yale Law graduate who grew up poor in Ohio’s industrial heartland.³⁹ Author of "Hillbilly Elegy," the memoir that explained Trump’s base to coastal elites who couldn’t understand the 2016 election.⁴⁰
But credentials alone don’t win over skeptical voters. Vance connects Trump’s instincts to actual policy in ways that make sense to people outside the hardcore base.
When he talks about bringing manufacturing jobs back or securing the border, he’s not just repeating slogans. He knows the legal framework, understands the economic arguments, and can defend the positions without losing his temper.⁴¹
Democrats bet everything on making Vance radioactive after that "childless cat ladies" comment.
The poll numbers show how badly that strategy backfired. His favorability actually went up after becoming Vice President.⁴²
The Republican Party that emerges from Trump’s presidency will be fundamentally different from the party of Bush, McCain, and Romney. It will be a working-class, America First party that prioritizes the interests of forgotten communities over coastal elites and corporate donors.
Vance embodies that transformation better than anyone else in the Republican Party. He grew up experiencing the devastation globalization inflicted on Middle America. He served his country in uniform. He built a successful career through hard work. And he never forgot where he came from.
That authenticity resonates with voters who are tired of politicians who talk about working people but never actually lived that life.
Vance has the credentials and the track record to carry Trump’s movement forward while building his own coalition.
Trump Jr. brings name recognition and MAGA credibility, but he lacks the political experience and Independent voter appeal that Vance has demonstrated.
The poll numbers reflect that reality in devastating fashion for the President’s son.
The 2028 Republican primary is still three years away.
A lot can happen in politics during that time. But right now, JD Vance is running away with it. And Democrats who are already planning their 2028 campaigns better start preparing for a Vance nomination.
Because the numbers don’t lie.
And they’re telling a story that should worry everyone on the Left.
¹ Morgan Sweeney, "Poll: Vance, Trump Jr. early favorites to win GOP nod for next president," The Center Square, October 19, 2025.
² – ¹⁷ Ibid.
¹⁸ Arit John, "Megabill negotiations show Vance is a key player in the Trump administration," ABC News, July 5, 2025.
¹⁹ Ibid.
²⁰ Ibid.
²¹ Ibid.
²² "Vice presidency of JD Vance," Wikipedia, accessed October 20, 2025.
²³ Ibid.
²⁴ John, "Megabill negotiations show Vance is a key player."
²⁵ "Vice presidency of JD Vance," Wikipedia.
²⁶ Tommy Christopher, "Exclusive: Donald Trump Jr. Considering a Run For President in 2028," Mediaite, March 7, 2025.
²⁷ "Trump Jr. says ‘maybe one day’ he’ll run for president," CBS News, May 21, 2025.
²⁸ Christopher, "Exclusive: Donald Trump Jr. Considering a Run."
²⁹ Ibid.
³⁰ Myra Adams, "Some wild 2028 speculation about Vance and Donald Jr.," The Hill, July 18, 2025.
³¹ Nick Mordowanec, "JD Vance’s Chances of Beating Donald Trump Jr. in 2028," Newsweek, June 20, 2025.
³² – ³⁶ Ibid.
³⁷ Sweeney, "Poll: Vance, Trump Jr. early favorites."
³⁸ "Vice President JD Vance," White House website, accessed October 20, 2025.
³⁹ Ibid.
⁴⁰ Ibid.
⁴¹ Ibid.
⁴² "Vice presidency of JD Vance," Wikipedia.
