George H.W. Bush is the only sitting VP to win the White House since the 1830s.
JD Vance just proved he's on that same track – and Rubio and DeSantis are still in the parking lot.
A new YouGov poll shows exactly how badly the 2028 Republican primary is already over for two of Florida's biggest political names.
The Numbers That Should Scare Team DeSantis
Vance sits at 36% among Republican and Republican-leaning voters.
Rubio checks in at 13%.
Donald Trump Jr. – a man with no government job and no formal campaign – also checks in at 13%.
And DeSantis?
Six percent.
That's not the brutal part.
The brutal part is that DeSantis is pulling 3% among Republican voters under 30 – and Mike Pence is beating him with Hispanic voters.
Let that land.
Mike Pence.
A man who hasn't held office since January 2021 – a man whose own base nearly turned on him – is outperforming Ron DeSantis with a Republican constituency DeSantis spent years trying to build.
https://twitter.com/AmericaFirsst/status/2045258734314647576?s=20
DeSantis flew migrants to Martha's Vineyard.
He built Alligator Alcatraz.
He threw state money at immigration fights without securing federal reimbursement.
And Republican Hispanic voters still find Pence more credible.
Rubio's Problem Is Even Simpler
One percent.
That's Marco Rubio's support among Republican voters under 30.
He's strongest with senior citizens at 20% – which is exactly the demographic he needs least to win a 2028 primary against a sitting VP who just turned 41.
Rubio's profile has been rising.
He's been the face of the Iran operation, Trump has called him "brilliant," and donors at Mar-a-Lago pushed him hard in informal polling earlier this year.
And he still can't crack double digits with the next generation of Republican voters.
The numbers explain why Rubio told associates he won't enter the race if Vance does – and why he keeps every door cracked while praising the Vice President in public.
He's not running against Vance.
https://twitter.com/ElectionTime_/status/2043789168745021900?s=20
He's running for the VP slot on Vance's ticket.
The One Number That Makes All of This Academic
Since the 1830s, exactly one sitting vice president has won the White House – George H.W. Bush in 1988, when Reagan left office at 68% approval.
Trump's endorsement is worth more than Reagan's was.
Reagan had strong approval but a party that still ran competitive primaries.
Trump has already told NBC News he'd "be inclined" to back a successor – and made clear that Vance and Rubio together on the same ticket would be "very hard to beat."
The moment Trump points at Vance, this race is over before DeSantis files a single piece of paperwork.
Rubio knows it.
That's why he's not positioning to beat Vance.
He's positioning to be Vance's first call.
Trump is enjoying the parlor game for now – bouncing the question off advisers, praising both men in the same breath, keeping everyone sharp.
That's how Trump operates.
https://twitter.com/GuntherEagleman/status/2043721349525291062?s=20
But when he moves, he moves fast – and nobody in the 2028 field is built to survive a Trump endorsement going to someone else.
Vance Is Going to Win This Thing
DeSantis leaves the Florida governorship in months with no answer for what comes next and poll numbers that put him behind a man who hasn't held office in four years.
Rubio keeps racking up foreign policy wins in the Cabinet and waits.
And Vance barnstorms the country through the 2026 midterms as finance chair of the RNC – building exactly the kind of grassroots operation that converts a 36-point polling lead into a delegate count nobody can touch.
The YouGov numbers aren't a snapshot of who's winning.
They're a preview of what happens when the most powerful political endorsement in the history of the Republican Party lands on one man's campaign – and everyone else in the field has to figure out what to do with the rest of their career.
Sources:
- A.G. Gancarski, "Another poll shows Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis staring up at JD Vance in 2028 GOP sweepstakes," Florida Politics, April 18, 2026.
- Axios, "JD or Marco? Trump asking advisers about 2028," February 22, 2026.
- Reuters/Jerusalem Post, "Trump declines to take sides between Vance, Rubio in 2028 successor debate," February 5, 2026.
- NBC News, "Iran war elevates Marco Rubio in Trump's 2028 succession jockeying," March 10, 2026.
- Byron York, "JD Vance's Hard Road to 2028," Washington Examiner, April 14, 2026.
- Newsweek, "JD Vance's 2028 presidential election chances plunge in new poll," April 2026.
- Yale Youth Poll, "Spring 2026 Results," April 2026.
