Former Congressman Matt Gaetz is eyeing a return to politics that could turn Florida’s Governor’s race upside down.
Gaetz has Trump’s ear, but not his endorsement in a race that’s getting more complicated by the day.
And Matt Gaetz just shook up the Florida Governor’s race with this one shocking announcement.
Matt Gaetz flirts with a run for Florida Governor
Former Representative Matt Gaetz hasn’t held public office since withdrawing as President Donald Trump’s Attorney General nominee, but he’s not staying on the sidelines for long.
Gaetz, now a news anchor for One America News, is openly teasing a run for Florida Governor in 2026 – despite Trump already endorsing another candidate.
“I host a television show on One America News,” Gaetz told NBC News. “Casey is right about one thing: It’s very early. Many tectonic plates can shift in Florida in the next year or so.”
The “Casey” he’s referring to is Florida’s current First Lady Casey DeSantis, who’s also considering a run to replace her term-limited husband, Governor Ron DeSantis.
This creates a potentially explosive three-way Republican primary that includes Representative Byron Donalds, who already has Trump’s endorsement and has raised over $14 million.
Trump’s endorsement isn’t clearing the field
Donald Trump’s dominance in Florida politics is unquestioned after winning the state by 13 percentage points in 2024.Â
But his endorsement of Donalds hasn’t stopped other Republicans from considering jumping into the race.
Trump advisers told NBC News that the president’s endorsement of Donalds “is set” regardless of who else enters the race.
“You have to work for something like this, and we see him doing that,” a Trump adviser said about Donalds. “There is no reason President Trump would deviate at this point.”
But Gaetz, a longtime Trump ally, sees opportunity in a potentially divided Republican field.
“Matt is always thinking — I could see him seeing a potential multi-way race presenting him an opportunity to re-emerge for a run,” a veteran Florida Republican operative told NBC News.
In a three-way race, a candidate could potentially win the Republican nomination with just 30% of the vote, giving Gaetz a path to victory despite not having Trump’s official backing.
Polling shows an uphill battle for Gaetz
Early polling suggests Gaetz would face significant challenges in the primary.
A James Madison Institute poll conducted in April showed Gaetz with just 8% support among Republican primary voters, compared to 28% for Casey DeSantis and 22% for Byron Donalds.
A more recent poll by Targoz Market Research from May indicated Gaetz at 10% support, with DeSantis at 29% and Donalds at 28%.Â
Even more telling, when Republican voters were informed about Trump’s endorsement of Donalds, his support jumped to 44%.
Kevin Wagner, associate dean at Florida Atlantic University, told Newsweek that while Gaetz has name recognition, he faces substantial hurdles.
“There are some challenges for Gaetz. He’s likely to face other popular and well-funded Republican candidates,” Wagner said. “Without President Trump’s backing, Gaetz would face a difficult challenge as he would need strong support from President Trump’s voters to win.”
Political science professor J. Edwin Benton was even more blunt, telling Newsweek a Gaetz victory would be a “long shot.”
“I think that Donalds having been endorsed by President Trump would hurt Gaetz tremendously,” Benton said.
Hope Florida scandal adds another wrinkle
The race has already been complicated by controversy surrounding Casey DeSantis and the Hope Florida organization.
The social welfare group tied to the First Lady faced scrutiny after allegations that the DeSantis administration illegally used $10 million from a federal Medicaid settlement to help defeat a 2024 ballot measure to legalize recreational marijuana.
While the Florida Legislature dropped its probe, the Tampa Bay Times reported that Leon County prosecutor Jack Campbell is now investigating the matter.
Governor DeSantis has strongly defended the program, saying: “I believe in this program deeply, and I stand by it 100%.”
A DeSantis adviser suggested the controversy only strengthens their resolve, telling NBC News: “If they [DeSantis’ critics] think going after the good work of Hope Florida is going to deter them from anything — it’ll actually do the exact opposite. They don’t back down.”
The race remains fluid
Political observers expect major developments after Florida’s legislative session ends in late June.
“All eyes are on Casey and what she decides to do,” a Republican familiar with her thinking told NBC News. “A post-session decision is expected, and until she decides one way or the other, it all remains in flux.”
Meanwhile, Gaetz is continuing to position himself for a potential run.Â
In January, he told The Tampa Bay Times he has “a compelling vision for the state” and understands “how to fix the insurance problem.”
With Trump’s commanding influence in Florida, Donalds’ massive fundraising advantage, Casey DeSantis’ name recognition, and Gaetz’s media savvy, the 2026 Florida governor’s race is already shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in the country.
