Byron Donalds is riding high as the Trump-backed frontrunner for Florida governor.
But December's election results just handed him a wake-up call he can't ignore.
And one Miami vote exposed Byron Donalds' biggest 2026 nightmare.
Democrats flip Miami after 30 years with one simple message
Miami voters made history this month by electing Democrat Eileen Higgins as mayor, breaking a nearly three-decade Republican winning streak in the predominantly Hispanic city.
Higgins crushed Republican Emilio Gonzalez by 19 points despite endorsements from Trump, DeSantis, and Senator Rick Scott backing her opponent.
The Democrat victory wasn't just about local politics.
Higgins centered her entire campaign on one issue that's resonating across the country — affordability.
Miami's cost of living sits 21% higher than the national average, with housing costs a staggering 59% above the national mean.¹
Higgins hammered those numbers relentlessly while Gonzalez focused on repealing property taxes and fighting overdevelopment.
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Voters chose the Democrat's kitchen-table message over Republican promises by a landslide margin.
The Democratic National Committee poured resources into the race after watching their party overperform in special elections throughout 2025.
Prominent Democrats including Senator Ruben Gallego, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel rallied behind Higgins.
They recognized Miami as a test case for whether Democrats could make inroads in areas Trump carried just one year earlier.
Trump flipped Miami-Dade County in 2024, carrying a county that had gone blue for decades.²
Now Democrats just proved they could win the city itself by running on economic anxiety.
Donalds acknowledges the threat but promises Florida stays red
Representative Byron Donalds sat down with Fox News last week, and the Miami results came up immediately.
The three-term congressman from southwest Florida has raised over $40 million since launching his campaign in February with Trump's blessing.³
He's leading GOP primary opponents by 29 points in recent polling and has locked down endorsements from 17 of Florida's 20 congressional Republicans.
But when asked about Miami flipping Democrat, Donalds had to admit the obvious.
"I do acknowledge what happened in the city of Miami," Donalds said.⁴
He didn't try to spin it or minimize the loss.
That's because the Miami race signals exactly what Democrats plan to run on nationwide in 2026 — affordability.
https://twitter.com/ByronDonalds/status/2003507353199804627?s=20
Inflation remains stubborn despite Trump's first year back in office, and Democrats have been laser-focused on economic anxiety all year long.
Those concerns fueled Democrat victories in last month's 2025 elections and drove overperformances in special elections throughout the year.⁵
The pattern is clear: when Trump isn't on the ballot, MAGA voter turnout drops while Democrats show up energized about rising costs.
Donalds tried to project confidence despite acknowledging the Miami loss.
"That's not going to happen in the state of Florida," he insisted. "Florida is going to continue to be a red state, because the people of Florida know what conservative policies are."⁶
He's betting Trump's economic agenda will show results by November 2026 that change voters' minds about affordability.
"Over the next year, you're going to see a lot of these economic changes, decisions made by the President of the United States, have real impacts in the lives of the American people," Donalds predicted. "Positive impacts."⁷
The Democratic Governors Association wasn't buying it.
"Byron Donalds has spent his political career helping to make Florida the least affordable state in the country," DGA spokesperson Kevin Donohoe fired back. "The Miami mayoral race showed that Florida voters are looking for change — but Byron Donalds would just offer more of the same."⁸
DeSantis relationship remains ice cold as primary looms
Donalds faces another challenge beyond Democratic momentum — his relationship with Governor Ron DeSantis remains "frayed" after Donalds endorsed Trump over the governor in the 2024 presidential race.
DeSantis still hasn't endorsed anyone to succeed him, and that silence speaks volumes.
"It's been better," Donalds admitted when asked about their relationship.⁹
The two were once close allies when Donalds served in the Florida House during DeSantis' first term as governor.
But everything changed when Donalds backed Trump while DeSantis mounted his failed presidential challenge.
DeSantis took a shot at Donalds in February, claiming the congressman "just hasn't been a part of any of the victories that we've had here over the left over these last few years."¹⁰
The governor even floated his wife Casey as a potential candidate, though that talk has since quieted.
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DeSantis' political operation was caught making calls to Tallahassee lobbyists urging them not to contribute to Donalds' campaign.¹¹
Despite the frosty relationship, Donalds insists he'll build on DeSantis' record.
"We are going to take all of the hard work that he's done for our state, and it's been tremendous, we're going to take that work and we're going to build upon it," Donalds said.¹²
The next ten months will test whether Donalds can navigate both Democratic momentum on affordability and lingering tensions with the governor whose supporters he needs in a primary.
Trump's endorsement gives Donalds massive advantages in fundraising and name recognition.
But Miami just proved that even Trump's backing couldn't save a Republican when Democrats hammer home kitchen-table economics.
Donalds is confident Florida's conservative voters will show up regardless of national Democratic energy.
The Miami results suggest he better have a strong answer on affordability — or risk watching Democrats chip away at Republican dominance in America's third-largest state.
¹ Sean Foreman, "Miami's new mayor faces a housing affordability crisis," WLRN, December 19, 2025.
² "Democrats flip Miami mayor's office, winning control for first time in nearly 30 years," The Hill, December 10, 2025.
³ "Byron Donalds campaign declares congressman dominant frontrunner in Florida Governor's race," Florida Voice News, December 18, 2025.
⁴ Paul Steinhauser, "Trump-backed Donalds vows to maintain DeSantis 'trajectory,'" Fox News, December 22, 2025.
⁵ – ⁹ Ibid.
¹⁰ "DeSantis disses Donalds, touts First Lady, when asked about 2026 governor race," Florida Phoenix, February 24, 2025.
¹¹ Matt Dixon, "Ron DeSantis' team is urging Florida lobbyists not to back Byron Donalds," NBC News, March 18, 2025.
¹² Paul Steinhauser, "Trump-backed Donalds vows to maintain DeSantis 'trajectory,'" Fox News, December 22, 2025.
