Ron DeSantis crushed Charlie Crist by 20 points in 2022 – the biggest Florida gubernatorial margin in 40 years.
Now with six days left, the man who built that machine is finally showing up for Byron Donalds.
And Ron DeSantis just did something he refused to do for months that has Byron Donalds jumping for joy.
The Race That Should Not Be This Close
Byron Donalds is running in a state Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024.
He has the Trump endorsement.
He has $110 million.
He has every structural advantage a Republican candidate could want in Florida.
And he's leading by two points.
His opponent is David Jolly – a man who spent years as a Republican congressman, decided the party wasn't giving him enough, and switched to the Democrat Party.
That man is within the margin of error of becoming governor of Florida.
The UNF poll conducted October 12–19 shows Donalds at 49% and Jolly at 47% among likely voters.
This is not the Florida Ron DeSantis built.
Why DeSantis Matters More Than Trump Right Now
Here is what the polling shows that nobody in the media wants to say out loud: Ron DeSantis is more popular in Florida than Donald Trump right now.
DeSantis carries a 52% approval rating with likely Florida midterm voters.
That matters because a specific slice of Republican voters – pro-DeSantis, anti-Donalds – have been sitting on the fence all cycle, and DeSantis is the only person who can bring them home.
Sixty-three percent of Republican primary voters who didn't support Donalds view him unfavorably.
In a two-point race, those voters decide everything.
That's why DeSantis has spent the final week going full closer.
He rallied with Sen. Ashley Moody in Pinellas County.
He’s hosting three teletown halls for congressional candidates in competitive races.
And now he’s appearing alongside Donalds at Luigi's Pizza in Brooksville on Wednesday, and again in Tampa on Sunday.
For a man who withheld his endorsement until Donalds had already won the primary – and said publicly before that Donalds "just hasn't been a part of any of the victories we've had here" – that's a significant shift.
DeSantis set aside the history.
He's closing for the team.
What DeSantis Built and What's at Stake
In 2022, DeSantis didn't just win.
He remade Florida politics.
He flipped Miami-Dade County red for the first time in two decades.
He won 57% of the Hispanic vote.
He went from winning the governorship by less than a point in 2018 to winning by 20 – turning a genuine battleground state into a Republican stronghold.
That coalition – the voter registration advantage, the credibility, the infrastructure – is what Donalds is trying to inherit.
DeSantis also spearheaded a mid-decade redistricting effort designed to net Florida Republicans four additional congressional seats.
Some of those races are now toss-ups.
The wave he built is receding.
If Jolly wins Tallahassee, it doesn't just end the GOP's eight-year grip on the governorship.
It hands the Left a trophy they'll wave for a decade.
It validates every Democrat who said DeSantis's Florida was always fragile – built on one man's personality, not a real realignment.
And it puts a man who already abandoned the Republican Party once in position to reverse what DeSantis spent two terms building.
That's what's actually on the ballot November 3rd.
Donalds Has to Close
Florida Republicans are fighting on multiple fronts with six days left.
Cook Political Report has two of the targeted congressional seats as toss-ups.
https://twitter.com/Molnar_Politico/status/2115162340333342972
Moody's Senate lead over Angie Nixon – the self-described democratic socialist – has shrunk to four points.
Amendment 3, DeSantis's property tax cut ballot measure, is polling below the threshold needed for passage despite the governor's personal campaign push.
DeSantis told supporters Tuesday: "There's no reason to wait."
With 3.5 million ballots already cast and Election Day approaching, he's right.
In 2018, DeSantis won the governorship by less than a point.
By 2022, he was winning by 20.
He knows better than anyone what it takes to close in Florida when the margin is tight and the stakes are everything.
Sources:
- Kylie Williams, "DeSantis emerges as Florida GOP's closer amid multiple tight midterm races," Politico, October 27, 2026.
- A.G. Gancarski, "Ron DeSantis to join Byron Donalds on campaign trail," Florida Politics, October 27, 2026.
- "UNF poll: Republicans Donalds, Moody hold slim leads in tightening governor, US Senate races," WUSF, October 22, 2026.
- "Florida governor, U.S. Senate races tighten in latest poll from UNF," Fox 35 Orlando, October 22, 2026.
