Republicans are still riding high from Trump's landslide victory last year.
But one major problem is starting to keep party leaders up at night.
And Ron DeSantis just exposed one ugly truth that has the GOP panicking about 2026.
DeSantis sounds alarm after Tennessee scare
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis dropped a bombshell warning that has Republicans scrambling to figure out their 2026 strategy.
Trump built a massive coalition of voters who show up when he's on the ballot.
But DeSantis just pointed out the glaring weakness nobody wants to talk about.
"I think Republicans have an issue that Donald Trump has created a big pool of voters, but some of them are unique to him," DeSantis told Fox & Friends on Friday. "So they'll go vote for Trump, and they'll vote for all Republicans when Trump is on the ballot. But if he's not on the ballot, some of them don't vote."
https://twitter.com/GovRonDeSantis/status/1996941576023490822?s=20
DeSantis wasn't pulling punches.
He warned Republicans against assuming districts that voted for Trump will automatically stick with the GOP in 2026.
The Tennessee special election proved his point.
Republican Matt Van Epps won Tennessee's 7th Congressional District by nine points last week.¹
That sounds like a solid victory until you look at the numbers.
Trump carried that same district by 22 points just a year ago.²
Former Congressman Mark Green won it by 21 points.³
Democrats celebrated a 13-point improvement as proof Republicans are in trouble heading into next year's midterms.
National GOP groups had to dump millions of dollars and deploy heavy artillery to hold the seat.
Trump's super PAC alone spent more than $1 million.⁴
House Speaker Mike Johnson flew down to rally voters.
Trump called into a tele-rally.
All that just to win a district Trump dominated.
Republicans face same problem Democrats had under Obama
The GOP's Trump problem mirrors exactly what Democrats went through during the Obama years.
Barack Obama energized millions of young voters and minorities who showed up when he was on the ballot.
But those same voters stayed home during midterms.
Democrats got destroyed in 2010 and 2014 because their coalition evaporated without Obama at the top of the ticket.
Now Republicans face the identical challenge.
Trump expanded the party by bringing in working-class voters, young men, and Hispanics who never voted Republican before.
Those voters love Trump personally but couldn't care less about generic GOP candidates.
"In an off-year midterm, the party in power's voters tend to be more complacent," DeSantis explained. "The party out of power, they get upset, right? That's just the nature of midterms."
https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1996221917011792018?s=20
DeSantis knows this firsthand.
He won reelection as Florida governor by 20 points in 2022 while Trump-endorsed candidates crashed and burned nationwide.⁵
Republicans flipped four Democratic House seats in Florida that year.⁶
Marco Rubio cruised to reelection.
"We won by a million and a half votes, 20 points, the biggest Republican win ever," DeSantis said. "But we did that based on results and substance. We did it by flying under a banner of bold colors, not pale pastels."
The message was clear.
Republicans can win midterms without Trump on the ballot if they deliver results and draw sharp contrasts with Democrats.
But most GOP candidates aren't willing to take bold stances.
They're terrified of alienating Trump's base by being too aggressive or stepping on his message.
That timid approach is exactly what will cost Republicans their majority.
Trump brought millions of low-propensity voters into the GOP coalition who only show up when he's personally motivating them.
Political analysts warn this group skews younger and more diverse than traditional Republican voters.
They're not motivated by typical GOP talking points about tax cuts or judicial appointments.
They're motivated by Trump himself.
Without Trump on the ballot, many will simply stay home.
DeSantis warned Republicans need to give voters bold reasons to show up in 2026.
"I just think you [got to] be bold. I think you [got to] be strong," DeSantis said.
https://twitter.com/Aaron4fl6/status/1998066857463452057?s=20
He urged Republicans to draw sharp ideological lines with Democrats instead of running scared.
"Think about why we've been able to win big in Florida. It's because there's a very sharp contrast to what we're doing and what the liberal Democrats stand for," DeSantis added.
Republicans currently hold a 220-213 majority in the House.⁷
Democrats only need to flip four seats to take control.
The GOP holds a 53-47 advantage in the Senate but Democrats are eyeing pickup opportunities in competitive states.⁸
History isn't on Republicans' side.
The party controlling the White House almost always loses seats in midterms.
Trump suffered massive losses in 2018 when Democrats flipped 40 House seats.⁹
Now Republicans are hoping Trump can defy history again.
But as DeSantis made clear, hoping Trump voters show up without Trump isn't a strategy.
It's wishful thinking that could hand Democrats control of Congress and doom the final two years of Trump's presidency.
¹ Owen Auston-Babcock, "Republican Matt Van Epps holds deep-red House district in Tennessee special election," NBC News, December 2, 2025.
² Ibid.
³ Ibid.
⁴ Ibid.
⁵ Surina Venkat, "DeSantis: 'Big pool' of Trump voters an issue for GOP in midterms," The Hill, December 5, 2025.
⁶ Ibid.
⁷ Auston-Babcock, "Republican Matt Van Epps holds deep-red House district."
⁸ Brookings Institution, "What history tells us about the 2026 midterm elections," August 28, 2025.
⁹ CNN, "Analysis: For the GOP majority to survive 2026, Trump must do something Obama could not," September 21, 2025.
