Republicans dodged a bullet in Tennessee.
But the close call has one Governor sounding the alarm.
And Ron DeSantis just exposed the one terrifying problem that could cost Republicans everything in 2026.
The Tennessee wake-up call Republicans can't ignore
Republican Matt Van Epps won the special election for Tennessee's 7th Congressional District on Tuesday.
Normally, that would be cause for celebration at GOP headquarters.
But nobody's popping champagne bottles over this one.
Van Epps beat Democrat Aftyn Behn by just nine points in a district Trump carried by 22 points only 13 months ago.¹
That's not a victory — that's a warning shot across the bow.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis didn't mince words when he broke down what the Tennessee results really mean for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterms.
"Special, off-year, and midterm elections historically benefit the party out of power because its voters are motivated to vote, while voters of the incumbent party become more complacent," DeSantis wrote on X.²
But here's where it gets worse.
"This is more glaring for today's GOP because a chunk of voters who put them in power in 2024 are Trump-specific voters," DeSantis explained. "They will vote GOP down ballot when Trump is running but won't turn out to vote for a typical congressman in a midterm when Trump isn't running."³
https://twitter.com/RonDeSantis/status/1996220672196902944?s=20
DeSantis doubled down on his warning at a Tampa press conference Wednesday.
"Generally speaking, yeah, it was a big warning sign," he said. "Every election that's happened has been a 10- to 15-point swing, you know, toward the Democrats. That's just what's happened lately."⁴
Trump pulled out all the stops and it barely made a difference
House Speaker Mike Johnson flew to Tennessee in the final days before the election.
He held a rally where he put Trump on speakerphone so the President could pump up the crowd.
"The whole world is watching Tennessee right now, and they're watching your district," Trump told voters through Johnson's phone. "It is a big vote, and it has to show the Republican Party is stronger."⁵
Trump even attacked Behn personally, claiming she "hates Christianity" and "hates country music."
The full force of the Trump machine got thrown at this race.
Van Epps called himself a "MAGA warrior" and promised to back Trump 100%.⁶
The Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. super PAC poured more than $1.6 million into the race — its first spending since the 2024 presidential election.⁷
And Van Epps still barely held on.
Every single county in the district shifted toward Democrats compared to Trump's 2024 performance.
In Davidson County, which includes part of Nashville, Behn won by 56.6 percentage points.⁸
Kamala Harris only carried that same county by 34 percentage points in 2024 — a shift of more than 22 points toward Democrats in just one year.⁹
Even in rural Perry County, where Trump won by almost 70 percentage points in 2024, Van Epps only won by about 55 percentage points.¹⁰
That's a 15-point swing toward Democrats in deep red rural Tennessee.
Republicans spent millions defending what should have been a safe seat
The Tennessee race morphed into a national spectacle after Democrats won gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey last month.
Socialist Zohran Mamdani's election as New York City Mayor sent additional shockwaves through the Republican establishment.
Outside groups dumped more than $6.5 million into the Tennessee race.¹¹
Two-thirds of that super PAC money came flooding in during the final two weeks as early voting picked up steam.
Republicans had to spend massive amounts defending a seat that Trump won by 22 points.
That's not supposed to happen.
DeSantis pointed to a similar pattern in Florida during a special election earlier this year.
"You remember they had to spend a lot of money in this deep red district here in Florida earlier this year, massive amounts of money went into that," DeSantis said. "They had to spend a lot in Tennessee, as well. That's just what we're dealing with, and I think Republicans should go into it clear eyed."¹²
https://twitter.com/RonDeSantis/status/1996223737062961168?s=20
Democrats are already declaring victory despite losing
Behn focused her campaign on kitchen table issues like grocery prices and healthcare costs while Republicans tried to paint her as a radical leftist who wanted to defund the police.
Her message clearly resonated.
Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin called Behn's performance "historic" and a "flashing warning sign for Republicans heading into the midterms."¹³
"What happened tonight in Tennessee makes it clear: Democrats are on offense and Republicans are on the ropes," Martin said in a statement.¹⁴
The House Majority PAC, which backed Behn, said the results "should be a five-alarm fire for the GOP."
"Tonight's results make it clear: No House Republican's reelection should be considered safe next November," spokesperson CJ Warnke warned.¹⁵
DeSantis also suggested Republicans could lose ground in the Florida House because of the same voter turnout problems.
"Based off the House's performance, you know, in '25, would they keep the supermajority if the election were today? No, I don't think they would," DeSantis said.¹⁶
The Trump coalition that delivered Republicans control of Washington in 2024 doesn't automatically show up when Trump isn't on the ballot.
And that reality should terrify every Republican running in a competitive district next year.
¹ Shane Croucher, "Ron DeSantis Gives Republicans Midterms Warning After Tennessee Election," Newsweek, December 3, 2025.
² Ibid.
³ Ibid.
⁴ A.G. Gancarski, "'Big warning sign': Ron DeSantis says GOP could lose ground in Congress, Florida House after narrow win in Tennessee Special Election," Florida Politics, December 3, 2025.
⁵ Alana Loftus, "Ron DeSantis issues huge Midterms warning to the Republican Party," Irish Star, December 3, 2025.
⁶ J. Holly McCall and Sam Stockard, "In tight Tennessee congressional race, Republican Matt Van Epps pulls out victory," Tennessee Lookout, December 2, 2025.
⁷ Domenico Montanaro, "Tennessee's special House election sets stage for affordability-focused 2026 midterms," NPR, December 3, 2025.
⁸ Shane Croucher, "Ron DeSantis Gives Republicans Midterms Warning After Tennessee Election," Newsweek, December 3, 2025.
⁹ Ibid.
¹⁰ Ibid.
¹¹ Domenico Montanaro, "Tennessee's special House election sets stage for affordability-focused 2026 midterms," NPR, December 3, 2025.
¹² A.G. Gancarski, "'Big warning sign': Ron DeSantis says GOP could lose ground in Congress, Florida House after narrow win in Tennessee Special Election," Florida Politics, December 3, 2025.
¹³ Domenico Montanaro, "Tennessee's special House election sets stage for affordability-focused 2026 midterms," NPR, December 3, 2025.
¹⁴ Ibid.
¹⁵ Grace Segers, "Republican Matt Van Epps wins Tennessee special election, averting Democratic upset," CNN Politics, December 3, 2025.
¹⁶ A.G. Gancarski, "'Big warning sign': Ron DeSantis says GOP could lose ground in Congress, Florida House after narrow win in Tennessee Special Election," Florida Politics, December 3, 2025.
