Ron DeSantis spent years and tens of millions of dollars trying to replace Donald Trump – and got humiliated out of the 2024 race before a single primary vote was cast.
Now the same man is sitting on the most valuable endorsement in Florida politics, and he isn't saying a word.
A brand-new poll just showed that 42% of Florida Republican primary voters say DeSantis's endorsement would matter more to them than Trump's – and every day DeSantis stays silent is another day Byron Donalds has to wonder if the floor is about to drop out.
The Poll Numbers That Tell the Whole Story
The University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab surveyed 657 likely Republican primary voters, and here's what they found.
Without endorsement information, Donalds leads Casey DeSantis by just four points – 28% to 24%.
Tell voters Trump has already endorsed Donalds, and it becomes a rout: 47% to 12%.
Trump's endorsement is obviously powerful.
But ask those same voters whose endorsement would matter more to them going forward, and 42% pick DeSantis over 32% who pick Trump.
The RNC pushed back hard, calling anyone who believes the poll an idiot and insisting Trump's endorsement is "the most powerful force in any primary."
https://twitter.com/jmj_r74817/status/2026343231277986283?s=20
They're not wrong about Trump's pull – the numbers prove it.
But they're also protesting a little too loudly.
The Man Trump Made – Who Then Tried to Unmake Him
Trump rescued DeSantis in 2018.
DeSantis was trailing badly to Adam Putnam – Florida's two-term agriculture commissioner with a nearly $16 million war chest – when Trump swooped in with an endorsement and changed everything.
DeSantis beat Putnam by nearly 20 points and won the governorship.
Trump bragged about it for years.
Then DeSantis launched a presidential campaign specifically designed to replace Trump, spent two years positioning himself as the younger, smarter, more disciplined alternative, and got destroyed so thoroughly he quit before Iowa.
Trump has never forgotten it.
The early endorsement of Donalds – issued in February 2025, 18 months before the primary – was a direct message to DeSantis: your successor is already chosen, and it isn't your wife.
What DeSantis's Silence Is Actually Doing
Ron DeSantis is not a passive man.
He was personally making calls to donors on Casey's behalf as recently as last spring.
He and Casey lobbied Trump directly over breakfast at Mar-a-Lago, reportedly asking the president to stay neutral if she decided to enter the race.
Trump said no.
So now DeSantis is playing the only card he has left – silence.
Every week he doesn't endorse keeps the race slightly unsettled, every "we'll see" from Casey keeps donors on the sideline, and every Florida Republican who tells a pollster that DeSantis's endorsement matters more than Trump's is a reminder that the governor still has leverage.
Donalds, for his part, has done everything right.
He has raised over $50 million – more than double what DeSantis raised in his entire 2018 primary – visited 28 of Florida's 67 counties, and locked up Trump, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and a pro-AI super PAC backed by the founders of OpenAI and Andreessen Horowitz.
He leads every poll by double digits once voters know about the Trump endorsement.
The Revenge Play Trump Set in Motion
What makes this race genuinely fascinating is that Trump already ran this exact play – and it's now running in reverse.
https://twitter.com/KickboxerEsq/status/2026126408242655485?s=20
In 2018, Trump made DeSantis.
In 2025, Trump moved to make Donalds before DeSantis could make anyone else.
The America First machine that crushed DeSantis's presidential campaign – anchored by White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, a longtime DeSantis political enemy – is now fully deployed behind Donalds.
The message to Florida Republicans is simple: Trump chose this man, and supporting anyone else is relitigating 2024.
DeSantis knows all of this, which is exactly why his endorsement – whenever it comes, if it comes – will matter so much.
The filing deadline is July 12, the primary is August 18, and Casey DeSantis's answer is still "we'll see."
Ron DeSantis hasn't said a word – and that silence is costing Donalds something real every single day.
Sources:
- University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab polling memo, February 2026.
- "Florida GOP voters say a DeSantis endorsement for governor would mean more than Trump's," Florida Phoenix, February 24, 2026.
- "Trump backs Rep. Byron Donalds in his likely run for Florida governor in 2026," NBC News, February 21, 2025.
- "The fight to replace Ron DeSantis in Florida is on, marked by jockeying with Trump," NBC News, March 4, 2025.
- "Super PAC backed by AI titans pledges $5 million to boost Byron Donalds' run for Florida governor," NBC News, February 12, 2026.
- "Rep. Byron Donalds continues to hold wide fundraising advantage in Florida's race for governor," News4Jax, January 15, 2026.
- "Trump backed Donalds on his run to succeed DeSantis as Florida governor," Fox News, March 29, 2025.
- "Donald Trump Gets Disappointing News About His Influence in Florida," Newsweek, February 24, 2026.
