Donald Trump's Vice President is already dominating the 2028 Republican field before a single vote has been cast.
And the man who spent $158 million losing to Trump in 2024 just quietly reappeared in the polling.
Here's why that actually matters – and why conservatives should pay very close attention to what DeSantis is doing right now.
Vance Has the Commanding Lead
Let's start with the number that matters most.
JD Vance is pulling 36% support in the latest Echelon Insights national poll of Republican voters for 2028.
Marco Rubio sits at 17%.
Ron DeSantis is at 12%.
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/2054170938208407630?s=20
A separate Verasight survey from late April puts Vance at 37% – with nearly three-quarters of Republicans viewing him favorably.
No other figure in the field is close.
Vance has the backing of the sitting president, the infrastructure of the MAGA movement, and the visibility that comes with being one heartbeat from the Oval Office.
Everyone else is running for second place right now.
What DeSantis Is Actually Doing
Twelve percent in a national poll would be embarrassing if DeSantis were actively running.
He isn't.
He's playing a different game – and conservatives who remember their political history know exactly what it looks like.
DeSantis is speaking to the New York State Republican Party this week.
He has been traveling to states across the country pushing constitutional amendments for a balanced federal budget and congressional term limits.
He's doing what Ronald Reagan did between 1976 and 1980.
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/2054184845845098852?s=20
Reagan lost to Gerald Ford at the 1976 Republican convention – a fight so brutal that Ford delegates were reportedly weeping on the convention floor as they cast votes against the man they actually wanted.
Reagan went home to California.
He didn't sulk.
He expanded his national radio commentary work, kept speaking across the country, and built relationships with state party organizations from coast to coast.
Four years later, he won the presidency in a 489-to-49 electoral landslide.
DeSantis isn't Reagan.
But the playbook is the same.
The Problem No Poll Can Answer
Here's what the polling doesn't tell you – and what every honest conservative should be thinking about.
DeSantis's 2024 campaign failed for reasons that didn't disappear.
He launched too early.
He raised $158 million and spent it on a super PAC that was literally doing jigsaw puzzles in its Iowa headquarters the week before the caucuses.
He traveled to all 99 Iowa counties and lost by 30 points.
https://twitter.com/WellsJorda89710/status/2053237014695149696?s=20
His own campaign staff later admitted they were never willing to raise the question of whether they should have been running at all.
None of those problems are fixed by keeping your head down for two years and endorsing term limits.
The core DeSantis challenge in 2024 was that Republican voters had the real thing in Trump and didn't need a younger version who couldn't connect the same way.
In 2028, that dynamic plays out again – only this time the real thing is JD Vance, who learned from Trump instead of just imitating him.
Vance's favorability among Republicans sits at 71%.
DeSantis's is 62%.
That gap is not nothing.
The New Hampshire Problem
National polls and state polls are telling different stories about DeSantis – and the gap is jarring.
He's at 12% nationally.
He's at 5% in New Hampshire.
New Hampshire is where presidential campaigns prove they're real.
Voters there expect candidates to show up, shake hands, do town halls, and earn it the hard way.
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/2056768093641191930?s=20
It is the single worst state in the country for a candidate whose biggest weakness is connecting with voters one-on-one.
Reagan won New Hampshire in 1980 – but he had four years to fix the things that cost him in 1976.
DeSantis has the same four years.
What This Means for the Movement
The America First movement has something after Trump it never had after Reagan – two seasoned, committed successors who actually believe in the agenda.
Vance is the clear frontrunner, and his rivals have lined up behind him.
Rubio has publicly backed Vance as the man for 2028.
Outgoing Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin called Vance the right nominee when asked directly on Fox News.
https://twitter.com/MrJohnJnr/status/2055989698900734118?s=20
The establishment doesn't get the keys this time.
The only real question for conservatives is whether the movement arrives in 2028 united behind Vance or fractured by a crowded primary where DeSantis and others compete for the same lane.
DeSantis at 12% says Republicans haven't forgotten him.
Vance at 36% says they already know who they want.
The smart play – for the movement, not just for DeSantis – is for America First to walk into 2028 with its best candidate and not burn another $158 million finding out the hard way.
Sources:
- A.G. Gancarski, "Back in the game? Another national poll finds Ron DeSantis with double-digit GOP support in 2028," Florida Politics, May 19, 2026.
- Verasight, "2026 Variety Survey," April 21–23, 2026.
- Colin Reed, "Four Important Lessons from DeSantis' Failed Presidential Campaign," Fox News, January 22, 2024.
- Craig Shirley, Reagan Rising: The Decisive Years, 1976–1980, HarperCollins, 2017.
- Henry J. Gomez and Matt Dixon, "As Vance locks down early 2028 support, would-be GOP rivals look for ways to stand out," NBC News, January 14, 2026.
