Jay Collins burned through millions of dollars on a statewide ad blitz and just 16% of Florida Republican primary voters recall seeing a single one.
Now the latest poll has him at 11% with 28 days left before the primary.
Byron Donalds is at 43% – sitting on $65 million – and the only real question left in this race is how big the margin is on August 18.
The Scoreboard Is Not a Race
Cygnal's fresh survey of 500 likely Republican primary voters has Donalds at 43% – more than the next three candidates combined.
James Fishback, the investment firm CEO who thought a Twitter following translated to Florida votes, checked in at 12%.
Collins, the lieutenant governor who spent millions on ads that apparently aired on a channel nobody watches, pulled 11%.
Former House Speaker Paul Renner is at 2%.
Three-quarters of Florida Republican voters already know who Byron Donalds is.
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/2077776039074230375?s=20
Only 35% have heard of Collins.
Only 31% know Fishback exists.
Paul Renner is a mystery to 83% of the electorate.
You could hand all 31% of undecided voters to a single opponent and Donalds still wins.
Ninety Million Dollars Versus a Bake Sale
Donalds has raised $90 million – a Florida record for a non-incumbent gubernatorial candidate – and has $65 million ready to deploy.
Collins scraped together roughly $6 million combined across his campaign and committee, including a desperate $5 million emergency infusion from a Big Tech-aligned group that bought him exactly nothing in the polls.
Fishback has less than $50,000 on hand.
You cannot run a statewide race in Florida on $50,000.
You cannot buy a single week of television in Miami for $50,000.
Collins has responded to his collapsing numbers by claiming he's a victim of "suppression polling" and the "lobby corps."
He also told reporters he is doing "pretty well" compared to DeSantis in 2018 – which would be true if DeSantis had been polling at 6.5%.
He wasn't.
What Trump's Endorsement Actually Means in 2026
Trump endorsed Donalds in February 2025 and has repeated it multiple times on Truth Social.
Last May he posted that Donalds is a "TOTAL WINNER" who has been tested at the highest and most difficult levels – and added his "Complete and Total Endorsement."
That is not a formality in 2026.
Trump's endorsed candidates have won GOP primaries at 93% in 2022, 96% in 2024, and an undefeated 100% across 118 decided races so far this cycle.
Ron DeSantis tried to stop it – suggesting his wife Casey would make a better governor, refusing to endorse Donalds, working the phones for alternatives.
Three-quarters of the Florida House Republican caucus endorsed Donalds anyway.
The donors followed Trump, not DeSantis.
The voters followed Trump, not DeSantis.
https://twitter.com/JayCollinsFL/status/2079267076028465369?s=20
DeSantis spent two years running a presidential campaign proving he couldn't beat Trump nationally, and his parting move in Florida is failing the same way.
The Cook Political Report rates the general election as Solid Republican.
No Democrat has won the Florida governorship since 1994.
Donalds will beat Democrat David Jolly in November and it won’t be close.
Collins can keep blaming the polls.
The polls keep agreeing with each other.
Sources:
- A.G. Gancarski, "Another poll shows a massive lead for Byron Donalds in GOP Primary race," Florida Politics, July 20, 2026.
- "Byron Donalds pulls further ahead in fundraising as GOP challengers continue to struggle," Florida Voice News, July 7, 2026.
- "Donalds, Jolly hold the inside track as Florida governor's race enters final primary stretch," WPTV, July 20, 2026.
- "Jay Collins remains in Governor's race, says he's buying ads to prove it," Florida Politics, April 20, 2026.
- "Trump's Perfect 118-0 GOP Primary Endorsement Record in 2026," American Tribune, May 29, 2026.
- "Florida House Republicans Throw Weight Behind Byron Donalds For Governor," AOL News/Press Release.
