Ron DeSantis was under 5% in the 2028 prediction markets the night Republicans got wiped out.
One week later he passed Marco Rubio.
Ron DeSantis just did something nobody saw coming – and the race to replace Donald Trump may never look the same again.
From Under 5 Percent to 17 Percent in Eight Days
Before Election Night, DeSantis was an afterthought.
Kalshi had him buried below 5% in a field dominated by Vice President JD Vance.
By Wednesday, he had climbed to 17% – enough to push him past Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who fell from 24% all the way to 16%.
https://twitter.com/KalshiPolitics/status/2120596058250113171?a=FHSRC1fZT67z3xc7QOg&s=20
Vance still leads the field at 34%, but his numbers dropped after Republicans lost both chambers in a wipeout nobody wanted to own.
Polymarket tells the same story.
DeSantis sits at 16% there, trailing Rubio by 2 points and Vance by 15.
Why DeSantis Is Rising While Everyone Else Stumbles
Here's what the political class doesn't want to admit: DeSantis is the only major 2028 figure who isn't attached to the midterm disaster.
Vance was the face of the Trump administration heading into Election Day.
Rubio was running American foreign policy at State.
DeSantis was running Florida – and Florida held.
That's not an accident.
While Democrats swept Senate seats in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Florida stayed red.
DeSantis spent two terms building a conservative model that actually works – school choice, anti-woke corporate crackdowns, aggressive border enforcement with ICE – and voters rewarded it.
He leaves office January 5th with a record nobody in the 2028 field can touch.
https://twitter.com/RyanAFournier/status/2118831505510162479?a=iylKQvTmgPKRbR_Cy6o&s=20
His successor, Governor-elect Byron Donalds, inherits a state built on DeSantis infrastructure.
The question isn't whether the DeSantis model works.
The question is whether the man who built it can sell it to 50 states.
His Next Move Is the Tell
NBC News reports DeSantis is exploring a conservative think tank after leaving the governor's office – a platform to shape Republican policy and stay in the national conversation without the exposure of a formal campaign.
The Washington Post says he's already contacted a political consultant and that a super PAC tied to him sent a fundraising text.
DeSantis denies all of it.
"I have not reached out to anybody about running for anything," he posted on X.
At Notre Dame last Saturday, he accused the "elite media" of relying on anonymous sources to manufacture horse-race narratives about his 2028 plans.
What he hasn't done is shut the door.
When CNN's Jake Tapper pressed him, DeSantis said the political landscape "may not be favorable for Republicans anytime soon" and that he "hasn't planned anything."
That's not a denial.
That's a politician keeping his options open while the market moves in his direction.
This Is Nixon in 1962, Not Nixon in 1960
History rewards the comeback – and the political class hates when you bring that up.
Richard Nixon lost to JFK in 1960, was written off completely after losing the California governorship in 1962, and came back eight years later to win the White House.
The same people now recycling "DeMinished" jokes made the same calls about Nixon.
What Nixon did between 1962 and 1968 is exactly what DeSantis is reportedly planning now – build infrastructure, stay relevant, let rivals make mistakes, and wait for the moment to open.
The moment may already be opening.
https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/2120924583503307029?a=1Ru97S-s0ZlQouI69HY&s=20
Vance owns the midterm shellacking whether he deserves it or not.
Rubio is tied to foreign policy decisions that will face their own scrutiny as 2028 gets closer.
Yes, DeSantis had a rough 2024 campaign – he entered too late, let the Trump team define him first, and exited before New Hampshire.
He knows it.
DeSantis alone walks into 2028 with clean hands, a winning record on his home turf, and a blueprint for conservative governance that just survived a Democrat wave that destroyed everyone else standing near it.
The prediction markets aren't stupid – and they just moved 13 points in his direction in one week.
Sources:
- A.G. Gancarski, "Ron DeSantis catches up with Marco Rubio in 2028 GOP prediction markets," Florida Politics, November 11, 2026.
- Matthew McClellan, "Gov. Ron DeSantis gains ground in 2028 prediction markets as questions grow about his next move," FOX 13, November 12, 2026.
- Staff, "Republican Nominee Odds After Midterm Elections," Federal News Network, November 2026.
- Staff, "2028 Republican Presidential Nominee Odds: Ron DeSantis Surges as JD Vance Stumbles After Midterm Disaster," OddsChecker, November 5, 2026.
