Ron DeSantis turned Florida from a purple swamp into a conservative fortress – and now the man Trump chose to carry that torch just proved the fortress is holding.
A new poll dropped Wednesday showing Byron Donalds within one point of a primary majority – with two weeks left before votes are even cast.
The numbers tell a story his opponents cannot spin away.
Donalds Is Closing, Not Coasting
The James Madison Institute survey of 1,400 Florida registered voters puts Donalds at 49% among Republican likely voters – a 31-point lead over Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, who clocks in at 18%.
Former House Speaker Paul Renner sits at 8%.
Businessman James Fishback, who spent months claiming young voters were his base, is running at 4% – including just 5% among voters under 25.
Donalds has 61% of voters under 25 in that same survey.
This is not a race anymore.
This is a coronation with paperwork.
The money backs up the polls.
https://twitter.com/ByronDonalds/status/2085367438158278916?s=20
Donalds has raised over $81 million since launching his campaign – two and a half times what Ron DeSantis raised at the same stage of his first gubernatorial run.
Trump endorsed him.
So did Donald Trump Jr., Elon Musk, Rick Scott, Speaker Mike Johnson, 27 Florida sheriffs, and 17 members of the state's congressional delegation.
That is not a frontrunner's coalition.
That is a governor's coalition.
Democrats Are Down to Their Last Prayer
David Jolly is their answer to all of this.
The best the Florida Democrat Party could find is a former Republican congressman who spent eight years on MSNBC attacking Trump, switched his party registration to Democrat, and is now pretending he's been a liberal his whole life.
Among likely voters, Donalds leads him 45% to 38%.
Jolly does lead with independents – 36% to 19% – and Democrats are treating that like a secret weapon.
It is not.
Charlie Crist led with independents too.
He lost to DeSantis by 19 points in 2022 anyway, because independents in Florida do not turn out for Democrats when Republicans put up a dominant candidate with a dominant operation.
https://twitter.com/Bannons_WarRoom/status/2085379392872542319?s=20
Donalds has $81 million.
He has Trump.
He has 27 sheriffs.
He is running ads attacking Gavin Newsom while Jolly is still trying to explain why he changed parties.
Jolly's entire theory of the race is that Florida voters are so fed up with housing costs that they will hand the governor's mansion to a man who voted as a Republican, commentated as an independent, and registered as a Democrat – all in the last decade.
Florida Is Not Going Back
Florida has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 2018.
That is not a coincidence.
That is a coalition DeSantis built and Donalds is inheriting – and every poll, every dollar, and every endorsement says he knows exactly what to do with it.
“The same policies around border security, immigration policy, limited government, low-tax environment, low regulatory environment, those are the same policies that I support today,” Donalds said in reference to his massive lead in the polls. “You know, people have come to know me and understand that I am a conservative who’s been committed to these ideals for a very long time, and I’ve been consistent on these ideals,” he continued. “I think you have people who want to see Florida continue in the direction it’s going, and they’ve decided to make contributions to my efforts.”
Donalds said it Wednesday: "We have a good lead now, but we want it to be better."
He is going to get it.
Sources:
- A.G. Gancarski, "Poll: Byron Donalds leads GOP Primary race by 31 points, David Jolly by 7," Florida Politics, August 6, 2026.
- "Byron Donalds campaign declares congressman dominant frontrunner in Florida Governor's race," FL Voice News, December 18, 2025.
- "Donalds inching closer to becoming first-ever Black Florida governor," The Observer Media, June 11, 2026.
- "US Rep. Byron Donalds remains GOP favorite in Florida governor's race, but rivals refuse to clear the field," WFLX, May 21, 2026.
- "Byron Donalds' chances of losing Florida race to Democrat David Jolly—Poll," Newsweek, July 2026.
